Weekly review of Indian stock market

June 2, 2007 Important Disclosure The views expressed below are the opinions of the author based on the principles of technical analysis, a science that has been tested and proven for more than hundred years. The views are unbiased and informative in nature. These do not constitute an offer to buy or sell stocks. Every effort has been made by the author to ensure correctness of the information presented. The author cannot be held responsible for omissions, mistakes etc. Investing or trading in stock markets is a high risk activity. Those who cannot afford to risk their money should refrain from dealing in stocks. The author has no vested interest in any of the stocks mentioned. He and/or his close associates may or may not be having positions at the time of writing this article. It is to be understood clearly that this article has been written purely for informative purposes only and the author cannot take any responsbility whatsoever for transactions, if any, entered into by the reader. The author does not guarantee that the projected targets will be achieved within the stipulated time frame. Source for the price data displayed in graphics and tables: National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Mumbai, India http://www.nseindia.com/ Charts have been created with FCharts Pro, © Spacejock Software, Australia http://www.spacejock.com/ Index this week: The nifty closed at 4297, gaining 48.90 points on weekly basis or about 1.15%. Between 1st March and 11th April a nearly ‘triple bottom’ formation could be seen in the daily chart of nifty. This is a highly bullish sign and the index has managed to close above its previous all time high of 4245. Having said that, attempt was made by the bears to push the index down immediately after the index closed at 4278 on 22.05.07. One can notice the ‘bearish engulfing pattern’ there, but it is of little significance since the index broke the resistance on a closing basis. Immediately bulls were seen in action and index once again closed above 4245. This indicates that the bull run is not yet over. Correction, if any will be a good opportunity to enter the market. As I said in my earlier article, Nifty is likely to reach 4600 soon. Support levels for the nifty are 4218 and 4039. The engulfing pattern seen at the top of the trend on 31.05.07 is not a helathy sign. It was further confirmed by the sell off next day, with a very long upper shadow. We can anticipate a correction now up to 4039 or 3902.

However, the weekly chart shows that there is an ascending triangle breakout with a triangle height of about 690 points. This when added to 4245 gives a target of 4935.

We can see from the charts that Nifty is bullish right now. Advance Decline Ratio: It can be seen from the above table, on a weekly basis bulls have the slightest edge over the bears. Though index is bullish, cash stocks have performed quite differently. Following table gives the list of top 5 gainers and losers among cash stocks: SREI Infrastructure Finance Limited has been bullish since 23.04.07. After hitting a high of 66 on 16th May the stock tested its support levels at 60. When it closed below 60 a “piercing line pattern” was formed. From 58, it managed to close at 86.30 or about 48.79%. I have very often seen this candlestick pattern yielding very good results, provided it is formed at the right time. Helios And Matheson Information Technology Limited formed a “double bottom” around 124.35. Piercing line pattern was formed on 25.05.07 with 127.05 as close. The next Friday, stock hit 20% upper freeze and closed at 170.50. Abhishek Mills has been bearish ever since it got listed on 19.03.07. Bearish engulfing pattern was formed in Torrent Power Limited on 29.05.07 which was confirmed by further lower close and a red candle. The stock lost about 11.28% while failing to close before its previous high. Conclusion: Nifty continues to be in overbought zones in weekly charts. However, it is normal for a scrip to be like this during a bull market while in bear market it is normal to be in oversold zones. As such there are no reversal signs in daily or weekly charts and let us hope for the best next week. In the next article we will discuss some technically interesting stocks for the short term. By Sundaramurthy Vadivelu The India Street