RBI working overtime to minimize liquidity in the face of relentless forex inflows

It has come into the notice that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government are working on new methods to minimize liquidity in the face of relentless forex inflows without only relying on instruments such as the cash reserve ratio (CRR).

In its recent currency and finance report, released last week, RBI said there is a requirement to explore further instruments or options for liquidity management, particularly in the context of a move towards fuller capital account convertibility.

“The government and RBI are looking at new options to counter liquidity,” pointed out a official at RBI. He also added that RBI would prefer using a ‘series of approaches with existing instruments’ without shutting off any one option completely, the source said.

Theoretically speaking, RBI has number of options to take into account and it can use a combination of measures to tackle forex inflows and liquidity. According to experts, these include diversifying a part of its foreign assets into non-sovereign assets like China has done, enhancing substantially the incremental CRR, go for a freer float of the rupee or even look at a disguised Tobin Tax to discourage the inflow of short-term hot money. It is worthwhile remembering that Tobin Tax is a levy on currency trades across borders to discourage short-term speculation in currencies.

The pivotal factor here is that last month; China’s new state investment agency invested $3 billion of its forex assets in US private equity firm The Blackstone Group. If experts are to be believed, these are unusual times, such unusual options can be looked at. But fact remains that such a proposal is fraught with risk since sovereign funds parked in such vehicles would expose RBI not only to currency risks but also to equity risk. “The list of entities that RBI can invest in can be expanded to accommodate not just sovereign debt but triple-A securities,” pointed out Kadar Khan, noted analyst based at India.

In my opinion, RBI can look at hiking CRR on incremental flows, rather than total deposits, as suggested by SS Tarapore, chairman of the committee on fuller capital account convertibility. In an ideal scenario, incremental CRR prescribes a reserve ratio based on the extent of growth in deposits. “The impact of this is in stemming excess liquidity in banks showing high growth without penalising the entire system,” pointed out official at finance ministry.

While there is no denying the fact that commercial banks are not needed to presently maintain incremental CRR, in the past they were required to maintain a 10% incremental CRR on non-resident deposits to reduce the liquidity created by flow of funds from NRIs. “The option of using dollar swaps to manage liquidity becomes limited as the rupee gains strength. RBI will not close the CRR option. It will look at augmenting its existing instruments to tackle inflows and liquidity, “ pointed out highly placed source at RBI. For instance, a slew of auctions will be conducted this week. This normally does not happen often.

Besides, with a 60% appreciation in the ECB limit from $14 billion to $22 billion in a single year, it significantly contributed to forex inflows. Whatever the options are, the time is now ripe for RBI to experiment, given that inflation is under control at 4.68 percent.

Source: The Economic Times.