Showing posts with label BSE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BSE. Show all posts

Friday, November 2, 2007

How to become a stock broker in India


By Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Overview:


In my previous article, “READ THIS if you want to learn how to invest in India’s stock markets” we discussed various aspects of investing in Indian stock markets. In this article let us see what one has to do if he wants to become a stock broker.


Definition of “Stock Broker”:


A stock broker is a qualified, registered and regulated professional who buys and sells stocks and derivatives in the secondary market on behalf of their clients (investors, institutions etc.). All transactions carried out in the stock exchanges are done through brokers only. They maintain the basic information about their clients like names, contact information, PAN number, demat and bank account details etc. A broker may allow a client to place orders depending upon the funds which are available in the clients trading account. The brokers issue contract notes when trades are done. They also send periodical reports about the transaction history to their clients. The online brokers may also have these details on their web site which can be accessible only by the client.


Definition of a Portfolio Manager:


A broker is not entitled to advise the clients to buy or sell a security unless they are registered with SEBI as portfolio managers and an agreement is entered into by both the client and the portfolio manager. A portfolio manager can be discretionary or non-discretionary depending upon whether he manages the clients’ funds directly or just gives an investment advice. Some of the brokers-cum-registered portfolio managers are Geojit Financial Services Limited, India Infoline Limited, Indiabulls Securities Limited, etc. It may be noted here these are listed companies at BSE and NSE. There are separate procedures to become a portfolio manager.


Responsibility of brokers:


Brokers are expected to act based on the best interests of their clients. They may inform the clients promptly about margin calls, additional documentation if required etc. They are also required to send the contract notes as and when trades are carried out by/on behalf of the clients.


Brokerage:


This is the commission charged by the broker for the transaction. It could be a percentage of the trade value or flat amount per trade depending upon the agreement between the client and the broker. In India, brokers need to pay a service tax of 12.36% for the brokerage collected from their clients. This is passed on to the investors ultimately.


Who can become a broker in India?


  • An individual, a firm or a corporate can become a trading member(broker) of a stock exchange

  • Minimum age shall be 21 for individuals and partners/directors of firms/corporates

  • Individual/Partners/Directors must be at least graduates

  • Should have a minimum of 2 years experience in an activity related to dealing in securities or as portfolio manager or as investment consultant or as a merchant banker or in financial services or treasury, broker, sub broker, dealer, authorised agent or authorised clerk or authorised representative of a recognised stock exchange

  • For membership at the National Stock Exchange, a minimum paid up equity capital of Rs.30 lakhs is required for corporates.


Application form for membership at NSE is available from this link. Instructions for filling are also available at the web site.


It is to be noted here that those who want to become brokers


  • Should not have defaulted in a stock exchange

  • Should not have become bankrupt

  • Should not have been involved in fraud, dishonesty, etc.


The applicant shall also pay an interest free security deposit for cash, futures & options and wholesale debt market segments separately. For Cash/F & O segment trading the deposit is Rs.125 lakhs. Visit this link for other segments.

Once the application is received by the exchange, the membership is granted after due scrutiny and the process is given below.


  1. Interactive session with Membership Recommendation Committee

  2. Approval by Membership Approval Committee / Board

  3. Offer letter of provisional membership of Exchange

  4. Submission of documents for SEBI registration by applicant

  5. Receipt of SEBI certificate

  6. Enablement on the Exchange


Please note that this is the procedure for NSE. For other exchanges, respective web sites may be visited.


Once the membership is given, the broker must comply with the rules and regulations of the exchange by providing documents like audited accounts, insurance policies, networth certificates, shareholding pattern details etc.


The membership could be transferred to another person or a firm subject to the rules of the exchange. Members could be suspended/penalized/warned/expelled for misconduct, unprofessionalism, failure to pay margin money, etc.


The following institutes in India offer educational programmes on capital markets:


  • Bombay Stock Exchange Training Institute, Mumbai

  • National Stock Exchange of India, Mumbai

  • Institute of Financial and Investment Planning, Mumbai

  • All India Centre for Capital Market Studies, Nasik

  • Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India, Hyderabad

  • Institute of Cpital Market Development, New Delhi

  • Institute of Company Secretaries of India, New Delhi


Conclusion:


It requires a lot of understanding about companies, managements, businesses, fundamentals, technicals, procedures etc. to be familiar with activities of stock market. Those who are ambitious of becoming brokers need to have plenty of investment and trading experience.


Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The India Street’s Top 10 web sites for stock analysis




Sundaramurthy Vadivelu


Here at The India Street our endeavour is to bring transparency to India Real Estate and Stock Markets. Some of our readers have asked us which software we use for analysis, where from we get data etc. We think that such information should be shared with our visitors.


The top 10 web sites we use for stock analysis are discussed below.


1. National Stock Exchange of India


All our price data are provided by this site unless otherwise mentioned. It is very user friendly and one can download price/volume data for free from 1994 to till date. The intraday charts, Futures & Options contract charts, historical data, company name changes, trading symbol changes, IPO details like price bands, when the stock was listed, etc. are available at this site. What we do not get of course, is the candlestick charts. The site also provides details about option calculations, margin value estimations etc.


2. Bombay Stock Exchange


Our readers may have noticed that we mention BSE group and Scrip code in the articles. Some brokerage houses do not allow scrips other than A or B1 of BSE and it is for this reason we give this information. This web site provides candlestick charting for historical data. However, the End of the Day (EOD) file provided the site is not all that user friendly and there is no date field. When a stock that is already traded at BSE gets listed at NSE we might visit this site for historical price/volume data.


3. Yahoo! India Finance


The site provides delayed quotes as well as historical data. For downloading Sensex values this is a good source. Yahoo! Finance provides historical data for Indian ADRs which we discuss occasionally. It provides data about other world indices like Dow Jones, Hong Kong, Singapore etc.


4. Google


Everyone knows about this site. It is possible to search anything under the sun with Google. We do visit this site to search for stock splits, bonus, rights, news, etc. We have The India Street google group too to discuss our articles.


5. Spacejock Software


This site is the home of FCharts Pro, which we use for analyzing stocks. It is an excellent program which displays the price/volume data in graphical formats like OHLC, Candlesticks etc. It is a “white box” program in the sense it does not tell the user to buy at some point and sell somewhere else. The judgement is left to the analyst.


Simon Haynes, the author of this program is modest in admitting that he is only a programmer and not an investment specialist. He has also authored “Hal Spacejock” a science fiction novel series. There is a support forum for registered users. Neil McPhee is a senior member and moderator for the forum and he has done plenty of good work in compiling a User Manual. Both Simon Haynes and Neil McPhee are very helpful in replying to users’ queries.


Some users have found the FCharts formula language to be a little complicated. But this is true for other programs as well. Furthermore, there is no annual subscription or hidden charges – which is the best thing one can expect from a software vendor. The site also provides several free programs.


6. Lit Wick


Readers may have noticed that we use candlestick charts and patterns in our analysis. This site provides comprehensive details about candlesticks and candlestick patterns. Candlesticks originated in Japan and it is one of the most powerful charting techniques available today.


7. Stock Charts


This is a highly recommended site which gives an excellent insight into various charting techniques, chart pattern analysis, Elliott wave theory, indicators/overlays, trading strategies etc. It is useful for both beginners and advanced users.


8. Trading Day


This is another excellent site that discusses not only the educational aspects of technical analysis but also the psychology behind investment and trading. This site will be a good start to all those who would like to perform technical analysis on their own. It also discusses some golden rules for traders, pitfalls in trading systems etc.


9. The Hindu Business Line


This site provides plenty of financial information like opinions, news, quotes, surveys, etc.


10. Money Control


This is a popular web site that offers stock quotes, financials, opinions, news, videos, complete market statistics and possibly everything related to India stock markets.



Sundaramurthy Vadivelu








Monday, October 15, 2007

Analysis of a Legend: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s Opinions

The India Street Analyzes the Analyst


By Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is undoubtedly the greatest Indian investor. He has been active in Indian stock markets for nearly 22 years now. He has seen the ups and downs at Dalal Street. His opinions have been vivid and most of the times he gets those right. The India Street attempts to analyze his opinions on US and Indian stock markets.


Recently he was interviewed by CNBC – TV18. We present below our views on his opinions.


Q: From morning we have heard a variety of views on subprime and what impact it could have on India and emerging markets. What’s your take on it?


A: I think the impact of the subprime crisis is going to be far worse than markets are expecting today. I do not think Fed rate cut can solve the subprime crisis; I do not think that the US housing market is going to bottom for the next 24-30 months. I think the US economy will further slow; anyway at the moment the markets are quite elated with the Fed rate cut. Let’s see what happens.


TIS View: We have maintained that ‘crisis’ is the best opportunity to enter the market. For example, during the US Sub-prime mortgage crisis, the BSE Sensex touched a low of 13780 on August 17 this year. On October 12, it has made a high of 18845 or nearly 5000 points in just less than two months! In our article cited above, we have said that the media finds reasons to justify the market movements. A good example was seen in May 2004 when the Sensex lost 1259 points (5487 was the high on May 13, 2004 and 4228 was the low on May 17, 2004) but the political change was being termed as a crisis on that occasion. Now Sensex has gained more than 4 times from 4228 without any change in political scenario.


The markets move technically and nothing can really solve any crisis. We do know that the exporters of goods and services in India are badly affected by the appreciating Indian rupee. However, Reserve Bank of India has not intervened to depreciate the rupee.


In India, the latest real estate IPO stocks have done reasonably well despite the crisis. Read more about it in “Review of select real estate sector stocks”. One might argue that it is just in the short term these stocks have gone up. But we believe that even in long term the stocks might provide decent returns since majority have good fundamentals.


We certainly can’t visualize other sectors like engineering, fast moving consumer goods, capital goods, consumer durables etc. getting affected by the so called US subprime mortgage crisis.


Q: You been bearish on US saying that the bull-run over there has ended. We saw how this bubble has burst, the whole housing market is gone into a slump, and US stocks are down. What is your take on it?


A: The US market has not slumped; the Dow is nearly at a new high. The markets are perceiving that this problem will be surmounted, just like all other problems.


TIS view: We do agree that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at a new high. Techincally, it has even a higher target. The monthly chart of DJIA is shown below (Source: Yahoo! Finance)



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/DJIA_M_101207.jpg


The DJIA has been bullish on monthly charts. It closed at 42.84 in April 1932 and after 75 years, it is trading above 14000. One can watch the ascending triangle breakout in DJIA in the above chart. The triangle height is 4728 points and the technical target works out to 16637. Interestingly, the DJIA has broken the resistance after 6 years and 8 months – a good decline and consolidation period.

Q: You expect more Fed cuts to keep fueling the markets going forward?


A: I do not know what kind of Fed cuts will happen, because inflation also has to be looked at. But I do not think the Fed rate cuts can solve this problem.


TIS View: The interest rates are often being cited as a reason for market upmoves or corrections. While this may be partially true in the sense more money will flow into stock market because of the reduced interest rates, the major movements are due to technical and fundamental reasons. Also, we have seen in various articles about stocks that are pretty bearish even in this great bull market. We may think of it as a function of demand and supply gap; the more people want, the higher the price they wish to pay for the stock.


Q: Our Indian markets, or almost all emerging markets are clued on to what is happening over there (US). Because of that, we are seeing heavy volatility coming into the markets. If you take a look at the past three days also, there has been heavy volatility?


A: I would disagree. About two-two and half years ago, the Sensex first crossed the Dow and today the Sensex is at least 20% higher than the Dow, in numerical terms. So you may have day-to-day reactions, but over a period of time you will decouple.


TIS View: Basically, volatility arises due to profit booking at higher levels or so called ‘value buying’ at lower levels. This is true for short term, medium term as well as long term. When the crowd thinks they had enough and wish to book profits, certainly volatility will step in. Same is the case when the market participants feel that they need to enter the market at some stage.


Q: From a longish point of view, what is your take on the bull run in India?


A: I think the longer-term bull market in India is very much alive.


The factors driving the bull market are alive and kicking and will be present in India for a very long time to come. Having risen from 3,000 to 18,000, we can always be prepared for corrections or some fall. Markets may not even go up for maybe another year. But I do not think the bull market is dead. We had a rise from 3,000 to 18,000 and if we consolidate and do not go up for a year or two, I do not think it’s going to make any difference to the long-term bull market.


TIS View: We certainly agree. As far as the indices are concerned, the markets may consolidate for some period (it could even be years like the DJIA) before eventually they make their further upmove. Having said that, we have to wait for a technical confirmation before we conclude that the bull run has ended.

Q: Do you think we are going to consolidate from now on and then only progress further?


A: I do not know whether we will consolidate. But even if we were to consolidate and not go up much or go down a little, the longer-term bull market will still be alive.


TIS View: As discussed previously, we have to maintain that the bull market will continue in the absence of reliable and strong reversal signals. That way, we agree with this as of now.


Q: We heard Chris Wood say in the morning that the Sensex target, the long-term CLSA target, is 40,000. What is your take on that?


A: I can only have some idea of the directions; I have no targets.


TIS View: The term target is used to project possible price levels a stock or index might reach after a bullish or bearish breakout. When resistances are breached, new highs are formed; when supports are broken, new lows are formed. Currently the Sensex is at its life high and it depends whether decline/consolidation pattern occurs and further breakout on either side. Each person may have his or her own target, but the stock or index has its own target!


Q: You been bearish on Indian IT for quite sometime now. What could happen to the US economy? When we talked to the tech companies, they say fundamentals have not changed, rupee is the only problem. What is your take on that?


A: Fundamentals today might not have changed. But if there is a big slowdown in the US economy, which I personally anticipate, then I think software will also come under pressure.


Earlier, we had all tailwinds for the software industry and in my opinion we have headwinds now. I do not say that software companies are going to go down. Although volume may or may not get affected, margins will be affected and therefore price earnings ratios can be affected.


TIS View: We analyzed Infosys Technologies Limited previously and found that it was bearish for short as well as medium term. We also indicated that the market is probably concerned about exchange rates, for which the company has no control.

Currently, the market participants are not interested in majority of the software companies. But there is an exception, Rolta India Limited, which has gained 145.50% this year. Infosys has lost 13.92% since January 1, 2007, followed by Wipro 19.66%, TCS 12.97%, Polaris 32.58%, Rsystems 56.56%. So, though the rupee factor has influenced many of these software companies, Rolta stands out as the winner!


Q: Midcaps have been very tepid over the past one-month. Is it just like in the middle of the storm? How do you see them bounce back?


A: I disagree. Midcaps are doing exceedingly well. I think 50% of all listed stocks have made new highs. So I do not agree that they have been tepid.


TIS View: True in some cases. Our medium term pick Adani Enterprises gained 62.63%, Engineers India 35.57%, RCF 22.79% in September 2007. Some pharamceutical and software stocks have not performed all that well.


The India Wall Street FACEBOOK Social Stock Picking Application


Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Saturday, September 29, 2007

Monthly Review of India stock market – September 2007



Indices break records; no respite yet for the bulls






Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Disclosure


Please click on the above link to view the disclosure document before reading this article. The contents may not be reproduced in any form without obtaining prior permission from the publisher.


Please send your feedback




The Nifty closed at 4464 on August 31, losing 64.85 points or 1.43% last month. The long lower shadow indicates that the lower side volatility was high i.e. attempt was made to push the index down but the bulls managed to close it near the open.


This month, the Nifty gained 557.35 points or 12.49%. In the last 12 years, the monthly gain for nifty over 12% has been achieved on 8 occasions, the last one being December 2003. Incidentally, a correction begain in January 2004 and in May 2004 Nifty lost 17.40%. In the monthly chart of Nifty shown below, there is still no sign of any reversal.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NIFTY_M_290907.jpg


Normally, in the absence of any reversal signs, we have to conclude that the current trend should continue. But how long the indices will keep going up without a correction? Last month, the Nifty touched a low of 4002; the weekly charts show that it closed positive for 6 weeks in a row.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NIFTY_W_290907.jpg


In the weekly chart too, there are no reversal signs. We need a pattern formation to decisively suggest that the market has reversed.


For Elliot wave count, some guidelines need to be followed. Few are given below.


  • Wave 2 may be any corrective pattern except a triangle.

  • No part of Wave 2 can more than retrace Wave 1.

  • Wave 2 must retrace Wave 1 by a minimum of 20%.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NIFTY_D_290907.jpg


After the Wave 5 completion at 4648 on July 24, a corrective decline began and waves a, b and c are marked on the daily chart above. Wave ‘a’ had a loss of 381 points, ‘b’ had a gain of 263 points and ‘c’ had a loss of 528 points. This is perfectly normal; it adheres to Elliott wave theory. When the uptrend started at 4002, we anticipated that a corrective decline may occur after 4530 which did not happen. Instead, the index was facing a sideways movment. If we strictly follow the rules of Elliot wave theory, it can be seen that:


  • Wave 2 actually made a higher high compared to wave 1 (it should not have)

  • Wave 2 did not retrace wave 1 by a minimum of 20% (it should)


These two discrepancies now lead to a conclusion that wave 2 has failed. This means that the market may no longer follow the Elliott wave theory for the time being.


A failed wave indicates uncertainty in the market. A decline can occur anytime but it is difficult to predict.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NIFTYOCTFUT_290907.jpg


The daily chart for Nifty futures contract - October series has been shown above. The open interest has significantly increased, from about 18466 contracts on September 14 to 31,744,900 on September 27. This is another reason to believe that markets are likely to face a corrective decline.


Forecast for next month:


Traders need to be cautious. A correction, usually sharp, can occur anytime and it is wise to avoid big positions, particularly in Futures & Options segment since there is lot of uncertainty. However, there will be some investment and trading opportunities, particularly for medium term. Investors can enter those stocks at support levels.


Record breaking month:


On September 27, the Nifty closed at 5001. It took only 29 sessions to reach this landmark from a low of 4002.


On September 19, Sensex went past 16000 and closed at 16323 with a huge upward gap. Again, on September 26, it touched a high of 17074. Next day it closed at 17151. It is to be noted here that Sensex took just 5 trading sessions to reach 17000, which is the LOWEST for any 1000 point milestone. For more on these milestones, please read my earlier article, “Sensex hits 16,000: The India Street Special Report”.


The minimum number of sessions ever to cross 1000 points was in April 2006 when it needed only 19. Now it is even less than that, just five. But after April 2006, a huge correction occurred and Sensex lost about 30.5% in about 5 weeks.


The top 5 gainers and losers for the month among index stocks are given below.


Scrip

% Gain

Scrip

% Loss

REL

54.67

WIPRO

4.58

RPL

32.58

GLAXO

4.27

HDFC

27.83

HCLTECH

1.39

TATAPOWER

24.76

TCS

0.39

TATASTEEL

23.31

SATYAMCOMP

0.35


For the month’s top gainers and losers in overall market, please read my previous article, “India’s Hottest stocks for September 2007”.



Sundaramurthy Vadivelu





Thursday, September 27, 2007

Stock of the week: State Bank of India






Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Disclosure


Please click on the above link to view the disclosure document before reading this article. The contents may not be reproduced in any form without obtaining prior permission from the publisher.


Please send your feedback




State Bank of India is the country’s largest bank. It is also the oldest in the Indian subcontinent. No other commercial bank in the world has more employees or branches compared to SBI. In India, it has more than 9400 branches; its assocate banks have 4000+ branches. Apart from this, SBI has presence in 32 countries and has 84 offices worldwide. It is the only Indian bank to feature in the top 100 world banks in the Fortune Global 500 rating (ranked 495 in 2007). A brief history of the bank is given below.


Business Profile:


SBI offers personal and corporate banking, agricultural/rural banking, NRI banking, international banking and government business services.


  • Personal banking: Savings/current accounts, term deposits, housing/car/educational loans, demat services, foreign inward remittance, public provident fund


  • Corporate banking: Trade finances, cash management products, fee based products, project finance


  • Agricultural/rural banking: Crop loans, kisan credit cards, agricultural term loans, financing harvesters, dairy, poultry, horticulture


  • NRI services: NRE/NRO accounts, term loans, home/car loans, foreign currency fixed deposits


  • International banking: Trade/project export finance, merchant banking, correspondent banking, exporters gold card


  • Government Business: Receipt of direct and indirect tax, government account, public provident fund, senior citizens savings scheme


SBI has 7 associate banks viz. State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur, Hyderabad, Indore, Mysore, Patiala, Saurashtra and Travancore. These banks earlier belonged to the princely states of India. The government integrated these banks with the State Bank of India to expand its rural outreach. All the 7 banks use the same SBI logo of blue keyhole. SBI has more than 5600 ATM’s across the country.


SBI’s foreign offices focus on India related business and are located in Australia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Dubai, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, China, Maldives, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Oman, The Bahamas, UK and US.


SBI’s wholly owned subsidiaries and joint ventures include:


  • Nepal State Bank Limited

  • SBI Mauritius

  • Indian Ocean International Bank (Mauritius)

  • SBI Canada

  • SBI California


Other SBI group companies include SBI Capital Markets, SBI Mutual Funds, SBI Life Insurance Company etc.




State Bank of India, California branch at San Diego


Financial Performance:



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/SBIN_Fin_260907.jpg


It can be seen that the net profits and EPS of SBI have grown consistently and more than doubled over the last 5 years.



The Central government holds 59.73% stake in the bank. SBI is a constituent of both Sensex (Scrip Code: 500112, free float market capitalization: Rs.42,721 crores, weightage: 3.83%) and Nifty (Ticker: SBIN, FFMC: Rs.84,226 crores, weightage: 3.61%). It is also listed at London Stock Exchange under the ticker SBID.


The monthly chart of State Bank of India Global Depository Receipt at London Stock Exchange is shown below. All prices are in USD.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/SBID_M_260907.jpg


Long term outlook:



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/SBIN_M_260907.jpg

On August 31, 1997 the stock closed at 283.65 and yesterday the close price was 1807. This means that the stock has appreciated more than 5 times. In the monthly charts, a negative divergence has been observed. Negative divergence occurs when security makes a higher top but a technical indicator makes a lower top. In this chart, we can see that the stock has made a higher low; but the slow stochastic indicator has made a lower low. This is a sign that the stock is likely to reverse. Since this has occurred in the long term chart, it is better to book profits at every high.


Medium term outlook:



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/SBIN_W_260907.jpg


In the weekly chart, higher high and higher low have been formed but the stochastic indicator had slightly declined at the consecutive peaks indicating negative divergence. Also, long upper shadows imply profit booking and higher volatility. Medium term investors too, may book profits at this stage.


Short term outlook:


In the daily chart, the stock had formed a bullish three inside up candlestick pattern on August 27. Watch the upward gap on the day after the harami pattern. This was the confirmation of trend reversal and the stock has managed to reach a high of 1889 from a low of 1407. On September 21, the stock had broken the previous resistance at 1799 but without much volumes, implying the trend will be weak. Also, a bullish engulfing pattern has been formed at the top of the uptrend near resistance levels; this could be a trap. The 21 day momentum has also gone down for three days in a row, indicating a possible trend reversal. The short term investors may also book profits if they already hold the stock; fresh exposures may be avoided.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/SBIN_D_260907.jpg


Conclusion:


  • Short, medium and long term investors may book profits since the charts suggest a possible trend reversal.



Sundaramurthy Vadivelu





Saturday, September 22, 2007

Weekly Review of the India Stock Market


Indices record new highs; but it’s time to be cautious






Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Disclosure


Please click on the above link to view the disclosure document before reading this article. The contents may not be reproduced in any form without obtaining prior permission from the publisher.


Please send your feedback



On September 18, the US Fed Reserve cut the key interest rate by half percentage point and many Asian markets were reacting sharply to this news.

Has the Indian stock market over reacted to Fed rate cut news? It appears to be so. The following table shows the points/percentage change in various stock exchanges across Asia. It can be seen that Sensex and Hang Seng (Hong Kong) were the maximum beneficiaries. The news made did not make much impact on Taiwan and China’s stock markets.


Exchange/Index

Points

% Change

New York (DJIA)

335.97

2.51

Mumbai (Sensex)

653.63

4.17

Hong Kong (Hang Seng)

977.79

3.98

Osaka (Nikkei)

579.74

3.67

Seoul Composite

64.04

3.48

Singapore (Straight Times)

116.61

3.35

Jakarta Composite

73.48

3.28

Kuala Lampur Composite

19.83

1.55

Karachi 100

174.94

1.35

Taiwan Weighted

26.47

0.30

Colombo ASPI

(18.29)

(0.01)

Shanghai Composite

(29.94)

(0.55)

AOL India reported that some caution is warranted in the near term. It read:


Sounding a similar cautious note, Arun Kejriwal of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services (KRIS) said, "It is a milestone indeed, but considering the way the market has gained the last 600 to 800 points, it makes us believe that something is wrong somewhere."


In May 2006, US Fed Reserve increased the interest rates for the sixteenth consecutive time by 0.25% to 5.25%. On this occasion, the Sensex lost nearly 31% in just five weeks time. But it went on to break its previous high of 12671 and go past even 16000.


Let us now analyze the daily charts of Nifty and Sensex and try to understand why a cautious approach is needed. Following table shows the points gained/ lost by Nifty and Sensex during the week.


Date

Nifty

Sensex

17-Sep-07

-23.35

-99.37

18-Sep-07

51.55

164.69

19-Sep-07

186.15

653.63

20-Sep-07

15.20

25.20

21-Sep-07

90.00

216.28


The Nifty closed at 4838, gaining 319.55 points or 7.07% for the week while Sensex closed at 16564, gaining 960.43 points or 6.16%.


In the last week’s review we anticipated correction since profit booking was seen at higher levels. But we did not rule out the possibility of indices going upwards since there were no reversal patterns or signals. As expected, the week started with a corrective decline of 23.35 points. However Nifty had broken its previous resistance at 4648 and closed above it for three days in a row.


Generally, when the market lacks direction i.e. at top and bottom, some “force” or “trigger” may help in deciding further movment. In August, the markets were in overbought condition and the US Sub-prime mortgage crisis acted as a trigger for a quick fall. This time, when everyone was looking for a correction Fed rate cut news made the markets move up higher.


Whatever the reason for this movement may be, now technically the indices have breached their resistances.


http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/Nifty_D_220907.jpg


In the daily chart, we can see an “ascending triangle” breakout with a triangle height of 646 points. The technical target for this breakout works to 5294.


However, ascending triangle breakouts have a tendency to fall back and test the support levels. This can be seen from the weekly chart shown below.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/Nifty_W_220907.jpg


It can be seen that Nifty, after breaking resistance has tested the support (earlier resistance) and after another upmove has fallen back to close below these levels. Going by this chart, the Nifty may very well fall below 4648 (see daily chart) and that possibility certainly exists. But that decline should only be used as an opportunity to enter Nifty futures.


The last time that Nifty gained more than 7% in a week was 6 years ago, during the week ending April 20, 2001.


http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/Sensex_D_220907.jpg


In the daily chart of Sensex too, the bullish continuation pattern, ascending triangle breakout has occurred. The triangle height is 2089 and technical target for this breakout is 17958. Watch the huge upward gap on September 19. This long white candle was followed by a doji, indicating indecision among traders about further movement. However, a white (green) candle and positive close has nullified the uncertainty.


Forecast for the next week:


There is a stock market saying: “News based rally seldom survives.” Technically the market has already entered overbought zones; As discussed in the weekly chart, ascending triangles are likely to test their support levels; Nifty has made a high of 4856 (it touched a low of 4002 last month) and gained about 21.3% without any significant correction. Let us now wait for a confirmation next week about the reversal. As I have mentioned in my earlier articles, a confirmation is important while deciding about future price movements.


Abnormal movers during the week:


On September 19, even as indices were soaring to new highs, sugar stocks witnessed heavy buying following an announcement that Government may allow sugar mills to produce ethanol and sell directly. Sree Renuka Sugars gained 24.16% during a single trading session.


On September 21, Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) gained 35.30% and 209 million shares got traded. The market speculated that the company is getting into gas distribution. Technically it broke its resistance at 41.65 during July 2007.



Advance / Decline Ratio:


Date

Adv.

Dec.

Unch.

17-Sep-07

539

583

28

18-Sep-07

782

346

25

19-Sep-07

679

453

25

20-Sep-07

453

667

32

21-Sep-07

467

668

21


Inspite of Nifty gaining 90 points on Friday, 57.8% of stocks ended up as losers.


Top Gainers / Losers among Index stocks:


Scrip

% Gain

Scrip

% Loss

RPL

18.55

SATYAMCOMP

2.73

REL

14.33

CIPLA

2.70

GAIL

13.37

WIPRO

2.57

SAIL

12.44

SUNPHARMA

2.40

RELIANCE

12.08

RANBAXY

2.14


Top Gainers / Losers in overall market:


Scrip

% Gain

Scrip

% Loss

STCINDIA

75.08

SUBEX

17.23

RIIL

74.21

TORNTPHARM

10.62

RNRL

51.43

AFTEK

10.07

WALCHANNAG

51.09

KPIT

10.04

UNIENTER

48.19

LOTTEINDIA

9.16



Sundaramurthy Vadivelu





This Week’s Hot Stock: HDFC





Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Disclosure


Please click on the above link to view the disclosure document before reading this article. The contents may not be reproduced in any form without obtaining prior permission from the publisher.


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Introduction:


Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) was founded by Hasmukhbhai T. Parekh, who was a General Manager at Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India (ICICI). HDFC was incorporated in 1977 with the primary objective of providing long term home loans. Now HDFC has diversified into banking, general/life insurance, mutual funds etc.


Business Overview:


HDFC provides loans for resident Indians and NRI’s for purchase of house, flat or bungalow from developers as well as for self constructed houses. Several options are available to the customers, including:


  • Maximum amount (upto 85% of cost of property)

  • Maximum term (20 years)

  • Fixed interest rate / adjustable interest rates


For repayment of loans, HDFC provides following options:


  • Flexible loan instalment plans

  • Trench based EMI (i.e. customers can fix the installments they wish to pay till the time the property is ready for possession)

  • Accelerated Repayment Scheme (i.e. increasing the EMI and replaying faster)


HDFC also provides home improvement loans for external repairs, tiles fixing/flooring, painting, plumbing, waterproofing etc. For adding space or additional rooms, it provides home extension loans. Other type of loans include short term bridging loan(selling old property to buy a new/bigger home), land purchase loan, loans to professionals for non residential purpose (such as clinic, office etc.) and mortgage loans for marriage/education/medical expenses.


HDFC offers two kinds of deposits, at fixed and variable interest rates and it has been awarded “AAA” rating for its deposits from both CRISIL and ICRA for the twelfth consecutive year, representing highest safety as regards timely payment of principal and interest. Several plans are available, including monthly/annual income, cumulative/non-cumulative and senior citizen deposits.


HDFC Realty, the real estate property division of HDFC, helps customers in finding opportunties for buying/selling/leasing/renting of residential property and commercial plot/land across various cities in India. HDFC Realty is managed by Home Loan Services India Private Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of HDFC.


HDFC has promoted HDFC Bank, which offers personal, corporate and forex banking solutions.


HDFC Mutual Fund has wide range of schemes to suit the investors – equity funds, debt funds, balanced funds and liquid funds.


HDFC Standard Life Insurance meets the insurance needs of individuals as well as corporates and offers insurance, gratuity, leave encashment and superannuation products.


HDFC has joined hands with Barclays of UK to promote Intelenet, a BPO company that provides IT solutions to banking, finance, retail, telecom etc.


Financial Performance:


HDFC has registered consistent growth in net profits and EPS in the last five financial years. Its net profits have more than doubled between 2002 and 2007 from Rs.690 crores to Rs.1482 crores and EPS has surged from 28.3 to 69.5.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/HDFC_FIN_PERFORM_210907.jpg


Stock Market Performance:


HDFC is a constituent of Sensex (Scrip Code: 500010, Free float market capitalization: Rs.57,269 crores; weightage: 5.23%) and Nifty (Ticker: HDFC, FFMC: Rs.53,050 crores; weightage: 2.27%). HDFC Bank, promoted by HDFC, is listed at New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and traded on ticker HDB.


Foreign Institutional Investors (FII’s) have a huge stake in HDFC (68.31%). Foreign Financial Institutions have 10.4% stake in the company.


The face value of the stock was split in the year 1999 (from Rs.100 to Rs.10) and HDFC issued 1:1 bonus in 2002.


At NSE, it is also traded in Futures & Options segment with a lot size of 150 shares.


Let us now discuss the short / medium / and long term outlook for the stock.

Short term outlook:



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/HDFC_D_210907.jpg


The daily chart of the stock is displayed above. Its short term resistance at 2100 was broken on September 6. It has gained about 12% after the breakout. But, it has made a high of 2424 from a low of 1786 or about 36% without any significant correction. Short term investors need to take note of this and consider 2100 as a support for entering the stock. It is also close to 50% retrcement level at 2106. 2031 may be considered as another major support.

So, short term investors may wait for corrective declines.


Medium term outlook:



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/HDFC_W_210907.jpg


There are no major revesal signs in the weekly chart of the stock. Medium term investors may continue to hold the stock. When calculated from a low of 962 the technical target for the stock works out to 2519. Support exists at 1828. Since the stock has already touched a high of 2424, it may not be wise to enter at this stage; however, if a sharp correction occurs, entry may be considered at support levels.


Long term outlook:



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/HDFC_M_210907.jpg


We don’t see any reversal signs in the monthly chart either. After adjusting for split/bonus, the stock has appreciated 12.72 times between September 1997 and now. Long term investors may book partial profits. But entry may be avoided at the current levels.


Conclusion:


  • Short term investors may enter the stock on declines at support levels

  • Medium term investors may consider booking profits

  • Long term investors may continue to hold/book partial profits




Sundaramurthy Vadivelu




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