Showing posts with label UTV Software Communications. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UTV Software Communications. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Top value stocks in Indian markets

By Sundaramurthy Vadivelu The India Street
Important Disclosure
The views expressed below are the opinions of the author based on fundamental analysis. The views are unbiased and informative in nature. These do not constitute an offer to buy or sell stocks. Every effort has been made by the author to ensure correctness of the information presented. The author cannot be held responsible for omissions, mistakes etc. Investing or trading in stock markets is a high risk activity. Those who cannot afford to risk their money should refrain from dealing in stocks. The author has no vested interest in any of the stocks mentioned. He and/or his close associates may or may not be having positions at the time of preparing this document. The reader needs to understand that this article is purely for informative purposes only and all transactions, if entered into by him will be solely at his risk. Source for the price and financial data displayed in tables: National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Mumbai, India (http://www.nseindia.com).
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Introduction: Before investing in any particular stock, one needs to know about the company, its business, key areas of strength, possible risks, top management, financial performance like book value, earnings per share, dividend yield etc. This is called ‘fundamental analysis’ and focuses only on the company fundamentals. It simply ignores the stock market conditions during that period. This is in complete contrast with technical analysis, which discounts all the factors while the market price is determined. In other words, the technical analyst believes that the company performance, business forecast etc. are always discounted by the market participants while trading the stock. It is ultimately a personal choice. For an investor who can’t sit in front of a computer for hours to analyze the market and find the right stock to invest, be it short term or long term, fundamental analysis could be useful. Several financial newspapers publish the important data such as book value, earnings per share etc. along with stock quotes. This can be used for fundamental analysis. Earnings of a company are very important to an investor. Once the company’s operations are stabilized and starts earning, it is reported to the stock exchanges. The audited results may also be published in popular newspapers. Good earnings are an indication of company performance and capital appreciation. Earnings per share is a term that is used to reflect the earnings of the company for each outstanding share. ‘Outstanding’ means the shares that can be traded in the stock market anytime. This is arrived after deducting promotors’ shareholding, locked in shares, etc. from total number of shares. EPS is calculating by adding the total earnings for the previous 4 quarters and then dividing it by the total number of outstanding shares. P/E ratio is another term that can tell the investor how much the market is willing to pay for the company’s earnings. It is simply the market price divided by the EPS. The book value of a company is the company's net worth, as measured by its total assets minus its total liabilities. This indicates how much the company would have left over in assets if it went out of business immediately. As with EPS, book value per share is arrived at after dividing the book value as per last balance sheet by the total number of outstanding shares. Price to book value (PBV) is the ratio between stock price and book value per share. These two parameters can help an investor to identify “growth” and “value” stocks in the market. Growth stocks usually have high P/E and PBV ratios, which means that these stocks are relatively high-priced in comparison with the companies’ net asset values. In contrast, value stocks have relatively low P/E and PBV ratios. Most growth investors are willing to pay a fairly high price for a stock whose earnings they expect to go up higher. They aren't completely insensitive to price, but the question of whether a stock is cheap or expensive isn't the real question for them. Value investors view cheapness as a major factor. They focus on stocks that are cheap. Just as growth investors are not totally insensitive to price, they are not completely indifferent to earnings progress. However, they are willing to sacrifice some earnings growth for the sake of cheapness. The following tables give us “growth” and “value” stocks in Indian stock market. Table 1: Companies with high P/E ratio Some of these companies, such as Aban Offshore, Educomp Solutions, Glenmark Pharma and UTV Software have gone up by more than 300% in the last 1 year. Table 2: Companies with high PBV ratio We can once again see Aban Offshore, GMR Infrastructure, Educomp Solutions and Glenmark pharma in this list. Table 3 : Companies with low P/E ratio: While choosing a stock the investor needs to be aware of the current business conditions in the industry it belongs to. Table 4: Companies with low PBV ratio: Conclusion: The debate between growth and value investing has been going on for years. Both styles have their positives and negatives and need different requirements on investment research. A truly diversified portfolio will have both growth and value stocks. In value investing, correct stock valuation as well as the right time of entry is very critical whereas in growth investing, it is essential to identify businesses that face little or no threat of erosion so that earnings growth of those companies is not affected.

Friday, June 8, 2007

'Sectorwise' performance: Myth or miracle?

By Sundaramurthy Vadivelu
Important Disclosure
The views expressed below are unbiased and informative in nature. These do not constitute an offer to buy or sell stocks. Every effort has been made by the author to ensure correctness of the information presented. The author cannot be held responsible for omissions, mistakes etc. Investing or trading in stock markets is a high risk activity. Those who cannot afford to risk their money should refrain from dealing in stocks. The author has no vested interest in any of the stocks mentioned. He and/or his close associates may or may not be having positions at the time of writing this article. It is to be understood clearly that this article has been written purely for informative purposes only and the author cannot take any responsbility whatsoever for transactions, if any, entered into by the reader. Source for the price data displayed in graphics and tables: National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Mumbai, India (www.nseindia.com). Charts have been created with FCharts Pro, © Spacejock Software, Australia (www.spacejock.com).
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Introduction: In a stock exchange, several companies are listed. Some of them belong to a particular industry or “sector”. For example, in the banking sector there are several listed banks, public sector banks such as State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Indian Overseas Bank etc. Examples of private sector banks include Karur Vysya Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Karnataka Bank etc. In the popular financial newspapers, magazines and television channels we often encounter reports like “the sugar sector is performing extremely well”, “the media sector is on fire”, “the textile stocks are outperforming the overall market” etc. This essentially means that the stocks from a particular sector are wanted by the crowd strongly compared to some other sector. Why does this happen? If anyone had been an active market participant, he would know what the normal stock market practice is. 1. Some people have their own ideas, they think the time has come to enter a particular stock or exit. They are “intution” based investors. 2. Few invest or trade based on others’ view or reports. There are hundreds of web sites and magazines offering investment advice, such as buy/hold/sell strategy. Some TV Channels allocate a time slot exclusively for this purpose. 3. Part timers believe in “buy on rumour and sell on news”. They somehow manage to get information from “reliable” sources and act accordingly. This may or may not work all the time. 4. People who know the risks and rewards of stock market, the professionals always try to analyze the market and form a strategy that suits them with regard to time frame and profit margin. These people are somewhat rare. Usually, a stock runs up expecting some “good news” or “positive news”. For example, depreciation of rupee value could be a booster for the software industry since they will get more rupee for each dollar earned. The federal government may allow export of a commodity more than the usual quota or a company may acquire another well performing company. Example of “bad news” or “negative news” may include losing a lawsuit, loss of revenue due to changing business conditions, price increase of a certain commodity (such as aviation turbine fuel may be negative for airline sector). People may have noticed that the stock may not go up as positive news was published in the media. This is because the stock has already run up expecting the news. The stock price, usually goes up or down, whether in the short, medium or long term as and when this kind of situation arises. The demand can be seen for a stock when the crowd expects a positive news and a sell off can be witnessed when the crowd anticipates a negative news. The daily chart of UTV Software Communications Limited is shown below. The stock ran up sharply from 179.55 on 01/11/06 to 278.65 on 14/11/06. The following text is from http://www.nseindia.com regarding this stock dated 08.11.06: “The media had reports that News Corp may pick up a sizeable stake in UTV Software Communications Limited. The Exchange, in order to verify the accuracy or otherwise of the information reported in the media and to inform the market place so that the interest of the investors is safeguarded, had written to the officials of the company. UTV Software Communications Limited has vide its letter inter-alia stated, "Please note that the article is an independent story by the publication and did not emanate from any official press release from the Company. As regards the news article, 'News Corp eyeing sizeable stake in UTV', we have to say that, at present there are no such proposals having been discussed by the Board of Directors of the nature stated in the news report." So the company did deny such rumours floating in the media. But few days later, more news came out, this time though, it was issued by the company itself: (Source: Corporate Announcments in www.nseindia.com) Dated 24.11.06: “Utv Software Communications Limited has informed the Exchange that the Company has received the approval from Government of India, Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs, Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) unit granting its approval for the acquisition of the entire shareholding by The Walt Disney Company (Southeast Asia) Pte Ltd (Disney) in United Home Entertainment Limited (Hungama TV). The said entire shareholding of Hungama TV is being acquired by Disney at an enterprise value of USD 31.125 million” Dated 27.11.06 “Utv Software Communications Limited has informed the Exchange that the Company has entered into a term sheet with Astro Multimedia International (BVI) Limited (Astro) for establishing a television channel joint venture business in India, South Asia and South East Asia. The scope of business of the joint venture company will be to create, develop, produce, own and operate one or more TV broadcast channels targeted at the age group of 15 to 25 in India, South Asia and South East Asia. The Company and Astro will hold 50% each of the equity capital of the Joint venture company. The aforesaid is subject to all regulatory approvals required for operating televisions channels in the territory being obtained and definitive agreements.” Dated 08.12.06 “Utv Software Communications Limited has informed the Exchange that "The Company (1) Has entered into an arrangement with Indiagames Limited and its promoters for acquisition of controlling equity stake in Indiagames Limited, a Mumbai based mobile and online gaming company for a consideration of around Rs. 68 crores. (2) Has entered into an arrangement with Ignition Entertainment Limited and its promoters for acquisition of controlling equity stake in Ignition Entertainment Limited, a UK based company involved in developing console games for a consideration of around Rs. 60 crores. (3) Has initiated development of animation movie projects with total investments to the tune of Rs. 135 crores over a period of next three years.” It can clearly be seen that the stock ran up expecting positive news. The story floating in the market place was obviously something different, but ultimately there was some news officially declared by the company. The above was just an example of a particular stock moving up based on expectation of positive news. The sector wise movment was noticed between October 2003 and April 2006 in the same manner in sugar stocks. The following table gives the stocks’ appreciation in sugar sector. * Adjusted close price due to stock split So, what was the bad news in May 2006 that started the “steep” fall to the current levels? http://in.biz.yahoo.com/061213/203/6a9mw.html says: “…In response to the rising prices in the domestic market, the government had clamped a ban on sugar exports in July, 2006. The global prices were lucrative at at time, ruling in the range of $420 to $460 a tonne. The domestic price rise was due to a combination of several factors like hoarding and manipulation in the future markets and not due to shortage. Since the imposition of the export ban, the industry has been lobbying for its removal. The government had at the same time also allowed sugar imports against low duty, but no substantial amount has entered the country…” It can be clearly seen that the market participants knew that the bad news was already on the the cards and decline started in May 2006. Conclusion: The news based buying or selling is not a great strategy for an ordinary investor. Rather, he should look for increasing his profits either by his own research or getting some qualified expert advice. News based rally never really losts long.

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