Showing posts with label winners and losers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label winners and losers. Show all posts

Friday, August 31, 2007

India Stock Market – Monthly Review for August 2007


Indices witness non stop rally; The India Street Analysis proved right!


By Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Disclosure



A couple of weeks ago, there were some ‘worries’ about how Indian stock market is likely to perform in the near future. Reasons cited were:



In the last week’s review, we had indicated that the indices appeared to have bottomed out. We gave 3 reasons to believe so.


  • Solid buying support came in after every fall

  • A bullish ‘harami’ candlestick pattern in weekly chart with medium reliability

  • Decreasing price and open interest in August contracts of Nifty futures


Those who were skeptical about Technical Analysis may have found out what exactly was reality.


Indeed, the indices DID bottom out. This week, the Nifty gained 273.85 points or 6.54% on a weekly close basis. In the last one year, it gained 5% or more only once during the week ended March 23, 2007. This week’s gain is only 7th such occasion in the last 3 years. That way, this week has been quite a remarkable turnaround in Indian stock markets.


The following table summarizes the daily gains of Nifty during the week.



Date

Points Gained

% Gain

27-Aug-07

112.45

2.68

28-Aug-07

18.10

0.42

29-Aug-07

38.60

0.89

30-Aug-07

53.00

1.22

31-Aug-07

51.70

1.17


It can be seen that Nifty didn’t lose a single point throughout this week.


Let’s now discuss the daily chart of Nifty.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NIFTY_DAILY_310807.jpg


The index has completed one full Elliott wave cycle as can be seen from the above chart. Waves 1 – 5 and a – c are already over. To begin a fresh cycle, the index needs to make a higher high and a higher low.


In the chart shown below, Fibonacci retracements are displayed. Nifty has successfully closed above 4401 i.e. 61.8% retracement which is the technical recovery target.


On August 27, a “Three outside up” pattern was formed in the daily chart of Nifty. Though the shadows of red candle were not engulfed by the shadows of the green candle, it is still a pattern with a lesser reliability. The green candle on Monday had a partial upward gap and this confirmed the engulfing pattern formation.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NIFTY_FIBO_310807.jpg


In the weekly chart, a bullish “Three inside up” pattern has been formed as shown below.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NIFTY_W_M_310807.jpg


The bullish pattern in weekly chart confirms the reversal. But in monthly chart, a bearish “Harami” pattern has been formed. Watch the long lower shadow. This is an indication of the lower side volatility. Previously, a bearish “Engulfing” pattern was formed as shown. But these two candlestick patterns need confirmation on the third period (day, week or month). Without confirmation, the patterns are insignificant.


Forecast for the next week:


Now that we have confirmation of reversal in short and medium term charts, we need to look for the formation of first wave in daily chart i.e. a higher high and a higher low. The index is likely to face resistance at 4530 and ideally, a close above 4530 will complete the formation of first wave.

Even if that does not happen, 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels should hold. Considering a low of 4002 and a high of 4471 these levels work out to 4293 and 4183 respectively. So, if a correction in the index starts straightaway next week (since the index gained for six consecutive days in a row) these are the two levels to watch out for. A reversal should occur after any of these retracements are breached.


We still remain positive on Indian stock market. Any decline in the index next week will only be an opportunity to enter the Nifty futures.


Futures & Options Market:



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NF_SEP_310807.jpg


It can be seen that the price and open interest are increasing for the September contracts for Nifty futures. This again, is a bullish sign, meaning more buyers enter the market as price increases.


IPO Update:


The India Street analyzed Puravankara Projects Limited IPO. Its issue price was Rs.400. It got listed on August 30. It opened with a negative premium of Rs.90 at Rs.310 and closed at Rs.362.30. However, today it gained slightly to close at Rs.377.05.


For the top 10 gainers and losers in the overall market for this month please read my earlier article, “India’s hottest stocks for August 2007”.


The top 5 gainers and losers for the month among index stocks are given below.


Scrip

% Gain

Scrip

% Loss

SAIL

12.01

CIPLA

12.75

BHEL

9.29

VSNL

12.01

TATASTEEL

5.10

HINDPETRO

8.79

RPL

3.63

GAIL

8.38

RELIANCE

3.56

TCS

7.95


The India Street analyzed BHEL in “Stock of the week: Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited” and VSNL in “Stock of the week: Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited VSNL”. We discussed about CIPLA in my previous article, “5 More Stocks to Avoid in the Short Term”.


Our long term pick Nagarjuna Fertilizers Limited gained 72.49% this month. Our short term pick Tata Sponge Iron Limited gained 20.84% this month.



Sundaramurthy Vadivelu








Thursday, August 30, 2007

India’s hottest stocks for August 2007


By Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Disclosure


Our readers know that many people who analyze the stock markets have a technical background. Some are proficient in using computer and software packages. Few are chartered accountants or management graduates. But what is the mathematical probability of spotting the top 10 gainers or losers in a week or month?


In my humble opinion, if there is a method to find this, they could possibly become millionaires within few months time. The truth is that:


Man proposes: God disposes.”


There is an interesting story by Father of our Nation, M.K. Gandhi about this famous Antithesis. Read more here.


Technical analysts have different styles of analysis; some use moving averages, technical indicators etc. Some others use chart patterns, candlestick patterns etc. Few others use their own customized ideas. At the end of the month, it is the CROWD that determines which stocks were most wanted or least wanted.


Given below are the top 10 Indian stocks that were most ‘wanted’ during August 2007.


Scrip

% Gain

ETCNET

140.78

JAICORP

86.33

REIAGRO

59.98

NAGARFERT

52.45

ASSAMCO

50.41

PAVCI

42.76

AARVEEDEN

39.50

CHAMBALFERT

33.86

EVERONN

33.34

EMKAY

31.35

The stocks listed above belong to either ‘A’ group or ‘B1’ group of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The other groups like B2, S, T etc are not considered due to company size or listing issues.


ETC Networks:



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/ETCNET_300807.jpg


In my previous article, “Top Ten Signs a Stock is Going to Move up or down” we discussed about breakout from consolidation pattern. This stock had consolidated for nearly a year before breaking out during the second week of this month. It gained 92.71% in the week. On August 6 it went up by 11%, followed by two 20% upper freezes, one 10% upper freeze. On August 10 it gained 9.45%. It is certainly an unusual movment. Semi-active or inactive investors face lot of risk while dealing in stocks such as this, as price bands will be narrowed up by the exchange once the stock hits upper freezes continuously. The stock may also be transferred to “trade for trade” segment for surveillance action i.e. only delivery trading; stock bought today can be sold only after 2 working days.


In other words, intraday trading will not be permitted. Some brokerage houses do not allow “trade for trade” transactions from online trading terminals. One has to contact them and follow up continuously for sale of the “trade for trade” stocks. It is also one of the reasons we do not analyze these stocks.


Jai Corp Limited:


Another stock that hits upper freezes or lower freezes often. It is also known for its “single priced” dojis, giving no opportunity to buy i.e. open, high, low and close are all same.


REI Agro Limited:


This stock had a “triangle breakout” as shown in the weekly chart below.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/REIAGRO_300807.jpg


It can be seen that this pattern had taken 21 months to form. At the time of breakout the volumes were not significant; but prices still went up. It means that the uptrend could become weaker.


Nagarjuna Fertilizers Limited was The India Street’s long term pick.


Assam Company broke its resistance on August 9. It had a 10% upper freeze on August 13 followed by four 5% upper freezes.


Panasonic AVC Network is also known to form single priced doji’s and hits upper freezes often.


Aarvee Denim & Exports was a bearish stock as on July 14. It nearly managed to test its previous low at 53. It is on the uptrend since August 7. At the time of our analysis the stock price was 73.75 and it closed at 59.90 on August 6, amounting to 18.78% loss.


Chambal Fertilizers broke its resistance at 37.40 on August 20. It was 20% upper frozen on the same day.


Everonn Systems India is being traded since August 1 and has not been affected much by the overall correction that the market witnessed in the last few weeks.


Emkay, after breaking out its resistance at 86 on July 6 had gone upto a high of 121.50. But it fell back to 85.55 on August 6. It again touched a high of 123.90 only to fall back to a low of 91.50. It has closed at 126.10 today.

Following table shows the top 10 stocks the crowd was least interested.


Scrip

% Loss

GDL

34.77

OMNITECH

25.03

IILTD

24.62

ALLSEC

24.12

SUNTV

22.48

NUCLEUS

22.09

HIMACHLFUT

21.37

BINANIIND

21.25

RSSOFTWARE

20.88

ASIANELEC

20.14


Gateway Distriparks Limited:


We discussed this stock in my earlier article, “5 India stocks to avoid (short term perspective)”.


Omnitech Infosolutions is being traded since August 14 only and data is insufficient to analyze. Insecticides India Limited is being traded since May 30 and keeps forming lower highs and lower lows. It is bearish in daily chart.


Allsec Technologies Limited is bearish in weekly chart. It has almost fallen to its support levels.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/ALLSEC_300807.jpg


The weekly chart of SUNTV is shown below. It can be observed that the stock failed to break its resistance at 461.98 on a close basis. It keeps forming lower lows – a sign of bearishness.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/SUNTV_300807.jpg


Nucleus Software, Himachal Futuristic, Binani Industries, RS Software and Asian Electronics are bearish in daily charts.




Sundaramurthy Vadivelu


LABELS: WINNERS AND LOSERS, ETC NETWORKS, NAGARJUNA FERTILIZERS, AARVEE DENIM EXPORTS, SUN TV, ALLSEC TECHNOLOGIES, EVERONN SYSTEMS, GATEWAY DISTRIPARKS, NUCLEUS SOFTWARE, ASIAN ELECTRONICS




Saturday, August 18, 2007

India Stock Market – Weekly Review – The Worst is Over

Disclosure


Indices correct quickly; bounce back expected next week



If anyone had watched Indian television channels over the last two days, he would have been amazed to see how many theories were floating around about the fall of the indices.



Which of these theories is correct, only time will tell. However, we saw previously that these are reasons that media finds to justify corrections or collapses in indices.


Let us now examine the technical scenario of the index in daily and weekly charts.


In the last week’s review I wrote that “the level of 4310 needs to be watched on a close basis. A close below this will make the index more sluggish during pullback rally.”


Nifty closed at 4108 on Friday, losing 225.30 points or 5.20% for the week.


http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/Nifty_Daily_170807.JPG


We anticipated a reversal this week. On Monday, the index managed to gain 40.30 points. Tuesday was flat – a “doji” was formed. Though Nifty lost a meagre 3.45 points, the trading session provided some clues for Thursday as total selloff was witnessed, with Nifty losing 191.60 points. On Friday too, index was once again deep in red; but some buying came in around the middle of the session which could be due to possible covering of short positions or technical rally due to oversold levels in hourly charts. Nifty touched a low of 4002 but managed to close 106 points higher at 4108.


http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/Nifty_Intra_170807.JPG

In the daily chart of Nifty, watch the waves 1 through 5 during the uptrend. It took 31 sessions for the index to reach 4648 from a low of 4101 (5th wave). But it has quickly fallen back to those levels now, utilizing just 17 sessions. Fall has been pretty sharp, with three sessions losing more than 3.50%. Just compare this with the fall between February and March this year. Index fell from a high of 4245 on February 8 to a low of 3555 on March 5. There were three trading sessions that lost more than 3% during the correction. But the Nifty bounced back from 3555 to 4648 as disscussed above.


http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/Nifty_Feb_Mar_Fall.JPG


We still maintain that this correction is healthy and there is no real need to panic. We have been seeing huge dips in index since the beginning of the bull run; but these corrections have only helped the Nifty to make new highs. So there is nothing to worry about the Nifty as of now.


However, one has to remain cautious on select stocks and sectors, which we discuss every now and then.


It can be seen in the daily chart that corrective wave ‘a’ and pullback wave ‘b’ appear to be complete. Now wave ‘c’ is in progress. Apparently, Nifty has broken critical short term supports at 4218 and 4101. Importantly, there are no reversal signs yet.


In the weekly chart shown below, the index has managed to break 38.2% retracement levels; it is almost on the verge of breaking 50% level too. Index has corrected for 4 weeks in a row, the last one being the worst fall. This week’s low was 4002. But Nifty has managed to close just above 50% retracement at 4108. Possibly this could be a reaction to oversold levels in hourly charts. 61.8% retracement works out to 3972 and this the level we now need to watch out for. For the target of 4935 for the nifty to be achieved, hopefully, this level should hold.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/Nifty_Weekly_170807.JPG


Considering all these factors, a bounce back for the nifty is expected this week; but the level of 3972 remains critical.


IVR Prime got listed on August 16. It opened at 456.25 with a negative premium of 94. From its issue price of 550, the stock has fallen to 413.55. The India Street maintained ‘avoid’ in short term for the IPO.


Advance/Decline Ratio:


Date

Adv.

Dec.

Unch.

13-Aug

796

311

24

14-Aug

575

533

29

16-Aug

137

985

13

17-Aug

225

888

20


Top Gainers / Losers among Index stocks:


Scrip

% Gain

Scrip

% Loss

SUNPHARMA

2.25

TATASTEEL

14.26

TATAPOWER

2.10

STER

12.66



VSNL

10.56



HINDPETRO

10.04



SUZLON

9.37

In my previous article “Stock of the week: Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited VSNL” we discussed about the bearish trend in the stock.


Top Gainers / Losers in overall market:


Scrip

% Gain

Scrip

% Loss

JENSONICOL

41.32

INDIABULLS

14.71

LML

40.28

ORBITCORP

14.32

ASSAMCO

27.66

GTLINFRA

14.27

NAGARFERT

24.28

ALPA

14.20

JAICORP

21.55

PATNI

14.14


Jenson & Nicolson is a case of bear trap. LML and Jai Corp are known for one priced “dojis” and upper freezes. Assam Company had 4 upper freezes this week with one single priced doji. Nagarjuna Fertilizers is The India Street’s long term pick.




Sundaramurthy Vadivelu






Friday, June 29, 2007

India Stock Market June Review - Top 5 Winners and Losers


Disclosure


Today was the last trading session for the month. We shall review the monthly performance of the index and index stocks. We shall also discuss the major gainers and losers for the month.


Short term view of the index:


In the last weekly review, I had mentioned:


On 25/06/07, if a red candle and lower close are formed it would confirm that this wave has ended and the another corrective wave c is likely to start. So from short term perspective, Monday’s session appears crucial.


Interestingly, in daily charts, the higher highs and higher lows are still maintained. This means that market is still bullish, though a corrective decline is inevitable. If we consider the fibonacci retracements, the index, though managed to close below 61.8%, has bounced back strongly.


However, on 25.06.07 we did not get the confirmation that we anticipated. A green candle was formed and the index also gained 7 points. This way, the “dark cloud cover pattern” was negated by the market.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NIFTYDaily+290607.JPG

The waves a and b appear to be over as we can see consolidation through wave c. Today the index has gained 36 points. So, the short term trend has turned bullish. The next resistance will be at 4363 which was the high on 04.06.07.


We discussed about Fibonacci retracements last week. Watch the retracements in the chart below.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NiftyFibo+290607.JPG


The index managed to retrace 61.8% of the fall from 4363 to 4101. It closed above it on last Thursday. However, immediately bears pushed nifty below 61.8% retracement the very next day. Now for the last 4 consecutive trading sessions it has closed above this retracement. This is one more reason to believe that the bulls are back in the market.


Medium term view:


On the weekly charts, the nifty, after forming a triangle breakout during the first week of this month but fell below the previous resistance line the very next week; it still remained below it for another week. In the last two weeks it has once again bounced back and closed above it. Yet another indication of bulls controlling the index. We discussed in earlier weekly review about this triangle breakout, with a triangle height of 690 points. This means that the index is very bullish for the medium term.


http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NiftyWeekly+290607.JPG


Long term view:


As I have maintained here and here, the long term trend is still bullish. There is no reversal sign in the monthly chart. The index has formed higher highs and higher lows for the last 4 months continuously. The relatively long lower shadow indicates that the lower side volatility was high; but bulls have managed to close the index in green. So we still maintain our view of bullishness in the long term charts too.


The top 5 gainers and losers of the month among index stocks are given below:


Scrip

% Gain

Scrip

Loss

ABB

18.84

TATAMOTORS

(11.31)

SUZLON

16.00

MARUTI

(8.93)

TATAPOWER

14.49

SUNPHARMA

(8.38)

REL

14.01

RANBAXY

(8.31)

HINDALC0

13.90

HINDPETRO

(8.16)



The following table shows the five top gainers and losers in overall market. As I have mentioned in earlier articles, these belong to either A or B1 category of BSE and also traded at NSE.


Scrip

Gain

Scrip

Loss

AARTIIND

77.53

IILTD

(30.91)

JAYAGROGN

73.55

NETFINCO

(25.77)

JAICORPLTD

64.01

HILTON

(22.40)

BLUEDART

62.43

FMGOETZE

(21.79)

GMRINFRA

50.55

HINDUJATMT

(21.56)


We have already discussed about some of these stocks in this article.


In our earlier technical reviews we have been tracking some of the stocks. Here is a review of them for this week.


Scrip

Current Price

Trend

Ind Swift Laboratories

58.60

Still not closed above 63.40

Omax Auto

82.15

Not broken resistance 94.70

India Bulls real estate

418.30

Broken its resistance at 420 on 25.06.07

Jindal Photo

111.10

122.30 on weekly close not achieved

Pochiraju Industries

26.10

Continues to form higher lows; next resistance is at 31.95

Punjab Tractors

271.70

Breaks 61.8% retracement and closes below it; bounce back expected.

Apar Industries

167.15

Turned sideways for short term

Bharat Earth Movers

1162

Still bullish

Lakshmi Vilas Bank

76.90

Very oversold in short term charts

Aztec Software

88.50

Breakout direction awaited.


Status of stocks covered in analyst upgrades and downgrades:



Scrip

Current Price

Trend

Development Credit Bank

105

Stock gained 4.27% during the week

Sical Logistics

275.60

Stock lost 6.32% during the week

PSL

296.30

Stock gained 2.24% during the week

ACC

934.95

Breaks resistance trendline; gains 9.70%; turns bullish in weekly charts

Bombay Dyeing

573.95

Gains 3.60%; breaks resistance trendline. However still sideways movement observed in weekly charts

Cipla

208.15

Lost 0.81%

Cambridge

129.75

Stock gained 2.61% during the week

Scrip

Current Price

Trend

Engineers India

510.40

Stock gained 3.49%; breakout on either side anticipated

Tamil Nadu Petro

17.75

Stock gained 1.72% during the week





SUNDARAMURTHY VADIVELU

The India Street

Sunday, June 24, 2007

India's Hottest stocks - Winners and Losers for June 2007

Disclosure


Investing or trading in stock markets, is like any other serious business. Before we invest our hard earned wealth in stocks, we need to do financial analysis, be it fundamental or technical. The investor has lot of options with regard to:


Trading time frame: short term, medium term, long term etc.

Type of trade: long or short, equity shares or futures & options contract etc.

Value of stocks: penny stocks, moderately priced, highly priced and expensive


It is upto the investor to choose a stock or contract based on his investment capital, time frame and type of trade. After doing the analysis and entering a trade, one may find that the stock he ventured into is not going up; or in other words, the crowd is not all that interested. Two stocks with almost similar technical scenario may not be wanted by the crowd equally.


Possible reasons could be:


Vested interests in some stocks by certain entities;

Crowd may be under the impression that the stock is either unfit to enter now or probably waiting for a trigger;

Crowd may be acting based on some other information, such as rumour.


So, technically, it is possible to analyze, apply the theory, evolve a trading strategy and enter a trade. But it is the market and market participants who will decide when the trader will exit from the stock successfully or otherwise.


In this article we shall discuss about “hot” stocks. These are the stocks which are wanted more by the market crowd in case of gainers (or unwanted in case of losers).


Criteria for selecting the stocks:


Stocks are listed based on percentage gain/loss since June 1 in descending order.


Stock shall belong to either A category or B1 category of BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange). The idea is to avoid small companies which are traded in B2 category; others in S, T, TS or Z cateogy may have listing related issues and hence these are not considered.

Table 1: Top Gainers since June 1, 2007


Scrip

% Gain

AARTIIND

87.85

BLUEDART

66.57

AJANTPHARM

48.16

ASIANELEC

41.84

JAYAGROGN

39.01

ASHAPURMIN

35.77

SIL

35.67

OILCOUNTUB

34.09

PARADYNE

34.00

MALUPAPER

31.78


Table 2: Top Losers since June 1, 2007


Scrip

% Loss

IILTD

-23.99

NETFINCO

-23.59

ATLANTA

-23.02

TELEDATAIN

-22.33

RPGCABLES

-20.25

HILTON

-19.26

HINDUJATMT

-19.07

DISHTV

-18.88

CREWBOS

-18.31

GLORY

-17.79


Let us see the technical picture of few of the stocks just prior to the excess demand or supply, as the case may be.


Aarti Industries:


Already we have discussed this stock in the weekly review dated 15/06/07. It is a case of bear trap. As the stock started forming lower highs and lower lows instead of breaking the previous wave’s resistance, bulls pushed up prices higher. This resulted in abnormal increase in price and volume. Just prior to the upmove the 21 day exponential moving average volume was around 20,000. Since 12/06/07 the daily volume has remained more than 400,000 ( highest was on 14th June, 3.9 million shares on NSE).

Blue Dart Express:


This stock was also a thinly traded one, prior to this unusual demand. The 21 day EMA was around 3000 only. The resistance at 502 was broken on 08/06/07. On 13/06/07 only 482 shares were traded. The very next day 106,097 was the volume. On 20/06/07 the stock witnessed heavy buying with 681,956 shares being traded. It is said that, big moves take long time to consolidate. It has become true in this case. The stock was moving sideways since 09/03/07. After three months, it broke its resistance and the demand for the stock was high.


BlueDart.jpg


Ajanta Pharma:


This stock has been bullish in weekly charts. On 22/06/07 it made a high of 130.70, breaking its previous high of 130 on 01/03/01. In daily charts, “three white soldiers” candlestick pattern was formed on 15/06/07 at a close of 97.70. On next Friday, 22/06/07 the stock closed at 124.90 with a weekly gain of 27.84%.

AjantPharm.jpg

Other stocks:


Scrip

Technical status

ASIANELEC

Bullish in both daily and weekly charts; currently 5th wave in weekly. It has appreciated 66 times since January 2001.

JAYAGROGN

Formed a double bottom around 56

ASHAPURMIN

Like Blue Dart, this was also consolidating for 3 months before breaking out.

SIL

Double bottom around 38.50

OILCOUNTUB

Bullish in both daily and weekly charts

PARADYNE

Bullish “three white soldiers” pattern formed on 01.06.07

MALUPAPER

Broke its previous support of 25.60 on 07.06.07; a case of bear trap.



Stocks that are ‘disliked’ by market participants:



Scrip

Technical status

IILTD

Insufficient data

NETFINCO

Insufficient data

ATLANTA

Very bearish in daily and weekly charts

TELEDATAIN

Bearish in daily charts

RPGCABLES

A case of bull trap; it has broken support trendline

HILTON

Insufficient data

HINDUJATMT

Bearish in daily charts

DISHTV

Bearish in daily charts

CREWBOS

Very bearish in daily and weekly charts

GLORY

Insufficient data



See my other India stock analysis here


SUNDARAMURTHY VADIVELU

The India Street

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