The India Street Stock Picks had a 89% Success Rate!

Editor Note: Had you invested Rs. 10,000 into each of Vadivelu's 75 stock picks (Rs. 750,000) - today you will have accumulated an amazing Rs. 17,00,000 a whopping 226% return.

Sundaramurthy Vadivelu

Disclosure Please click the above link to view the disclosure document before reading this article. The contents may not be reproduced in any form without obtaining prior permission from the publisher. Please send your feedback

Self Appraisal

In my previous article, Psychology of investing and trading we classified the investors as short term, medium term and long term. Since July 2007, we picked several stocks for short, medium and long term investment. We have also pointed out that some stocks are bearish. Let us now review these stocks.

Though the “short term” investors may hold the stocks for few days to few weeks, the ultimate duration depends on their profit margin, risk profile etc. However, a holding time of 21 sessions i.e. one calender month can be considered “short term”.

The India Street short term picks and their highest returns (on close basis) are given in the following table. Due to space constraints only scrip code, close price on date of analysis, highest close price and percentage returns are given. The full list of these articles are available here.

1. 5 India Stocks You Need to Own in the Short Term

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
GOKEX	236.65	259.20	9.53
HCC	119.15	139.95	17.46
ORBITCORP	281.05	355.65	26.54
OPTOCIRCUI	376.65	489.45	29.95
SOUTHBANK	121.05	159.70	31.93

2. 5 India Stocks You Need to Own Now

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
EVERESTIND	123.95	-	-
INDIANB	141.05	163.70	16.06
POLYPLEX	144.60	173.90	20.26
SINTEX	259.65	299.70	15.42
SRF	175.75	-	-

3. These 5 India Stocks Set to Move Up in the Short Term

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
ARVINDMILL	50.45	51.30	1.68
GNFC	124.90	139.85	11.97
PFC	169.30	195.65	15.56
PARSVNATH	394.00	-	-
TATAMETALI	147.95	-	-

Tata Metaliks closed at 180.30 on October 10 and Arvind Mill closed at 74.30 on October 25.

4. The Top 5 Bullish Stocks for this Week

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
CELEBRITY	76.80	89.00	15.89
GALLANTT	13.50	13.95	3.33
INDIAGLYCO	167.55	184.80	10.30
KTKBANK	197.55	-	-
USHAMART	56.55	-	-

Karnataka Bank closed at 245.05 on October 3, Usha Martin closed at 85 on October 16 and Gallantt Metals closed at 19.25 on October 25.

5. 5 Reasons to Remain Bullish on India Stocks in the Short Term

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
MRPL	44.35	-	-
NEYVELILIG	80.70	85.20	5.58
RCF	50.55	-	-
TATASPONGE	130.75	-	-
VARUNSHIP	67.40	-	-

These stocks were bullish just prior to US Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis. The highest close values after that crisis are given below. Tata Sponge, MRPL and Neyveli Lignite performed exceptionally well.

Scrip	Date	Close	% return
MRPL	26/09/07	74.30	67.53
NEYVELILIG	25/10/07	129.45	60.41
RCF	26/09/07	61.60	21.86
TATASPONGE	17/10/07	254.75	94.84
VARUNSHIP	16/10/07	76.35	13.28

6. Buy these 5 Stocks before the run up

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
BOMDYEING	542.45	697.15	28.52
GTLINFRA	34.30	40.60	18.37
KOTAKBANK	699.35	922.20	31.87
SCI	178.85	221.70	23.96
SUNILHITEC	204.70	259.45	26.75

These short term picks were based on candlestick patterns.

7. The 5 Next Biggest Stocks in India

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
BHAGWATIHO	40.95	47.00	14.77
BOC	147.80	154.45	4.45
DENORA	132.10	140.60	6.43
FDC	32.45	33.70	3.85
TVSMOTOR	70.35	-	-

It can be seen that out of 35 stocks discussed, the ‘true’ failures are Everest Industries, SRF, Parsvnath and TVS Motors. There is nothing technically wrong with these stocks. Investors with a little more patience (holding the stock for more than one month) might have gained better in other stocks.That said, we have a success rate of 89% in our short term picks during last four months.

We once again reiterate that technical analysis is all about probabilities; there are no certainties. No one can clearly predict which stock will rally on a given day. The best thing an investor can do in case of a failure is to accept it and get out of the stock. This should be used as a learning experience.

Medium Term Picks:

1. 5 India Stocks You Should Own for the Next 6 Months

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
ADANIENT	274.30	787.55	187.11
GODREJIND	204.40	-	-
HIKAL	489.20	566.95	15.89
TINPLATE	62.40	-	-
XLTL	134.25	225.95	68.31

Godrej Industries has a strong support at 140. It has formed a “harami” candlestick pattern last week. Hopefully, it should be able to bounce back from the current levels. Tin Plate has support at 41.30 and 40.10. The stock should reverse at these levels.

2. Buy These India Stocks and Hold for 6 Months

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
COSMOFILMS	99.80	-	-
HEG	213.70	274.55	28.47
KIRLOSOIL *	174.38	-	-
ROHITFERRO	40.60	53.10	30.79
ZEEL	342.90	-	-

* Adjusted close. Kirloskar Oil and ZEEL have lost marginally while Cosmo Films has just bounced back from support levels.

3. If you’re an Investor, Our India Stock Picks will add to your Net Worth

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
ISPATIND	18.80	32.00	70.21
JINDALPHOT	122.05	169.75	39.08
RANBAXY	409.25	442.35	8.09
TODAYS	75.95	97.20	27.98
VENKEYS	171.60	195.85	14.13

4. Top Five All-Around Value Stocks

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
INDRAMEDCO	39.65	40.85	3.03
INDUSINDBK	65.90	84.85	28.76
NAVNETPUB	77.80	90.40	16.20
SABERORGAN	17.55	19.95	13.68
ZUARIAGRO	275.25	292.65	6.32

5. There’s Something about These Five Stocks

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
BASML	96.60	120.10	24.33
CAIRN	178.30	204.65	14.78
IL&FS	220.55	336.35	52.50
LLOYDSTEEL	13.15	16.10	22.43
PENINLAND	119.25	138.55	16.18

It should be remembered here that one may hold the stock up to six months for investment. So, some more time can be given for those stocks that haven’t rallied yet. Out of the 25 stocks that we discussed, 20 have closed higher. This gives us a success rate of 80%.

Long Term Picks:

1. 5 Great Long Term India Stock Buys

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
DENABANK	46.75	69.00	47.59
GTL	225.55	265.55	17.73
GVKPIL	486.55	767.15	57.67
RPL	111.10	191.15	72.05
SREINTFIN	89.50	138.80	55.08

2. 5 Reasons to be Bullish in the Long Run

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
HITACHIHOM	135.55	-	-
NAGARFERT	23.45	64.25	173.99
PSL	339.90	398.60	17.27
PTC	86.65	106.20	22.56
UNIONBANK	155.90	173.90	11.55

3. Buy These 5 Stocks and Forget about them

Scrip	Close	Highestclose	% return
CHAMBALFERT	49.80	58.35	17.17
GITANJALI	292.10	379.50	29.92
HONDAPOWER	241.30	259.15	7.40
MALUPAPER	44.90	57.55	28.17
MSPL	25.50	40.30	58.04

Except for HITACHIHOM, all the other stocks have gained reasonably well. This leads to a success rate of 93% as for as long term picks are concerned.

Conclusion:

This is an eye opener for all those who are skeptical about technical analysis. Of the 75 stocks that we have discussed so far, only 10 have closed lower. So our overall success percentage is 87%.

In future, we shall try to continue and improve this success story. We also thank all those who sent their feedback.

Keep visiting The India Street for more on real estate and stock markets!

Sundaramurthy Vadivelu

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There’s Something about These Five Stocks

Analysis of select India stocks (Medium Term perspective)

Sundaramurthy Vadivelu

Disclosure Please click on the above link to view the disclosure document before reading this article. The contents may not be reproduced in any form without obtaining prior permission from the publisher. Please send your feedback

Let us discuss 5 India stocks that are technically bullish for medium term. The analysis is based on weekly charts.

Summary:

Scrip	Group	Scrip Code	Price 21-Sep
BASML	B1	532674	96.60
CAIRN	A	532792	178.30
IL&FS	B1	511208	220.55
LLOYDSTEEL	B1	500254	13.15
PENINLAND	B1	503031	596.25

Bannari Amman Spinning Mills Limited:

BASML has two divisions viz. spinning and weaving. The spinning division has an installed capacity of 29,232 spindles while weaving division has 28 projector wider width looms. These are located at Dindigul and Coimbatore respectively in Tamil Nadu. The spinning division mainly produces hosiery yarn for knitting market while weaving division produces 100% cotton fabrics.

The company’s net profits were Rs.5.08 crores for the first quarter ended June 2007.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/BASML_W_230907.jpg

After its listing, the stock lost 64% between November 2005 and June 2006 i.e. it fell from a high of 175 to a low of 63. It however, bounced back and made a high of 138.90 last November. But it has once again fallen back near support levels by recording a low of 63.60 in the first week of July 2007. An intresting bullish “three outside up” candlestick pattern has been formed in the weekly chart of the stock as shown above. This appears after the two “hammers” shown. The hammer, when appears in a downtrend, indicates that the market is bottoming out. Now we have an engulfing pattern followed by a higher close. The technical targets for the stock are110 and 139.

Cairn India Limited:

Cairn India Limited has been promoted by Cairn Energy PLC of Scotland. It is involved in oil field exploration, development, production and sales. Cairn has so far discovered 30 hydrocarbon blocks, onshore, shallow and deep offshore. It operates the largest private sector Indian oil producing field – Mangala in Rajasthan. Cairn India has two processing plants, 11 platforms, 200km of sub-sea pipelines and three of its oil fields produce more than 80,000 barrels equivalent per day. The company reported a net profit of Rs.37.6 crores for the quarter ended March 2007.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/CAIRN_W_230907.jpg

The stock’s issue price was Rs.160 and it got listed on January 9, 2007. It could just manage a high of 162 on the week of listing. It made a low of 111 in March. This week, the stock had closed above 164.70 (high during July) with reasonably good volumes. Medium term target for the stock works out to 218. Support exists at 134.50.

IL & FS Investment Managers Limited:

IL&FS Investment Managers Limited is the private equity investment arm of Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Limited (IL&FS). The company manages over US$ 900 million on behalf of leading Indian and international institutions and it is one of India's largest domestic private equity fund management companies.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/IVC_W_230907.jpg

It has the expertise in funds raising, management, investing, restructuring etc. It declared a net profit of Rs.5.87 crores for the quarter ended June 2007.

The stock was moving in a “rising channel” pattern for more than 6 months. The prices fluctuated between two parellel trendlines which have positive slopes i.e. moving upwards. It can be seen from the chart that during this week, the stock has managed to break this channel and close above it. There is also an upward gap, which indicates the strong demand for the stock. Technical target for the stock works out to 325 for the medium term.

Lloyd Steel Industries Limited:

Lloyd Steel Industries are manufacturers of steel and related products like hot rolled coils, cut to length sheets, plates, galvanized coils, pipes, etc. Its manufacturing plants are located at Wardha, Murbad and Ghugus. The company’s net profits for the first quarter ended June 2007 were at Rs.2.16 crores.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/LLOYDSTEEL_W_230907.jpg

The stock had a real tough time in the last two years, as it fell from 24.30 to 6.90. It made a high of 12.35 during January 2007 and, after an eight month consolidation pattern, the stock has broken out a couple of weeks ago with good volumes. Next resistance exists at 16.40; 61.8% retracement works out to 17.65. If the stock closes above this, we can expect it to test the previous high.

Peninsula Land Limited:

Peninsula Land Limited was formerly known as Morarjee Realties Limited and is a leading real estate developer in India. It has developed approximately 3 million square foot of real estate property and another 20 million square foot is in various stages of planning and development. Peninsula’s projects include Crossroads, CR2, Peninsula Corporate Park, Peninsula Technopark, Peninsula Business Park, Ashok Towers and Ashok Gardens. It is also in the process of developing 3 special economic zones in Goa. The company has declared a net profit of Rs.3.35 crores for the first quarter ended June 2007.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/PENINLAND_W_230907.jpg

The stock was hit badly during last year’s huge correction between May and June as it fell from 968 to 285. During bounceback, it touched 757 only to return to 303. It has started forming higher and higher lows and the resistance trendline has been broken. The support trendline too, holds well. This week, it has managed to close above 579.90, its previous peak in first wave. The stock can be expected to test its previous resistances at 757 and 968.

Sundaramurthy Vadivelu

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(medium term perspective)

Sundaramurthy Vadivelu

Disclosure Please click on the above link to view the disclosure document before reading this article. The contents may not be reproduced in any form without obtaining prior permission from the publisher. Please send your feedback

In this article let us analyze 5 India stocks which are technically bullish for the medium term. The discussion is based on weekly charts.

Indraprastha Medical Corporation (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 532150):

Indraprastha Medical Corporation is the holding company for Delhi based multi-speciality Indraprastha Apollo hospitals, a joint venture between Apollo Hospitals and Government of Delhi. It specializes in cancer, cardiac, neuro surgery, radiology and paediatrics. It earned a net profit of Rs.14.7 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/INDRAMEDCO_160907.jpg

This stock recorded a high price of 54.90 in July 2005. Since September 2005 it has been on a downtrend. It formed its first higher low of 25.40 in March this year with the first wave ending at 36.35 in June. This week, it broke this resistance and closed above it with good volumes. The stock is expected to test its previous high at 54.90 in the medium term.

Indus Ind Bank Limited (Group: A, Scrip Code: 532187):

We discussed this stock in my previous article, “Hot or Not? Private sector banks on a roll!”. This bank is the brainchild of Srichand Hinduja, a non resident Indian businessman. Ashok Leyland Finance Limited, a leading hire purchase and leasing finance company merged with the bank in 2004. It declared a net profit of Rs.68.22 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/INDUSINDBK_160907.jpg

We discussed about the stock struggling to break its previous high at 64, even though it was making higher highs and higher lows. Ultimately, the breakout was achieved this week, with the stock closing at 65.90. The level of 64 could not be broken for more than a year. Now that the stock has overcome the strong resistance, we can expect the stock to test its previous high at 83.90 for the medium term.

Navneet Publications (India) Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code:508989):

Navneet Publications is engaged in the publishing of educational books. The books list includes high quality books, supplementary books like guides and question sets in four languages, English, Hindi, Marathi and Gujarati. Navneet also produces various titles in the children and general books category, which are not based on syllabus, such as activity books for children, health series books, cookeries, etc. Navneet declared a net profit of Rs.43.5 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NAVNETPUBL_160907.jpg

Navneet Publications has not seen much action in the stock market in the last 16 months. Just before the May 2006 collapse it registered a high of 70. It attempted to break this level in September 2006 but failed. This week, almost after one year, it has broken out with good volumes and closed at 77.80. The previous high at 70 should now act as a strong support for the stock. So, any decline in the stock should be used to accumulate or enter. The medium term target for the stock works out to 108.

Sabero Organics Gujarat Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 524446):

Sabero Organics manufactures agrochemicals such as formulations/active ingredients and speciality chemicals/intermediates. The company exports its products to over 50 countries covering Australia, Asia, Africa, Europe, Middle East and the Americas. In order to facilitate the registration of its products and provide better customer service, the company has recently set up subsidiaries in Australia, Argentina, Netherlands and Brazil. The company’s net profits were Rs.0.41 crores in 2006 – 07 as compared to Rs.3.1 crores in 2004 – 05.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/SABERORGAN_160907.jpg

The stock had been on a downtrend since last 2 years after hitting a high of 43.30. It however, found support when it reached a low of 9.85 in July last year. It was consolidating for a year since then. This week, it has managed to close above its previous high at 17.35 with more volumes than its previous peak. The stock’s target for the medium term works out to 30.30, which was its previous high and also 61.8% retracement level from a high of 43.30.

Zuari Industries Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 500780):

We discussed about Chambal Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited, a K.K. Birla group company in my earlier article, “Buy These 5 Stocks and Forget about them”. Zuari Industries Limited (formerly Zuari Agrochemicals Limited) is another K.K.Birla group company. Zuari opertaes a nitrogeneous fertilizer plant in Goa, with an installed capacity of 946,200 metric tonnes. It comprises a single stream ammonia plant, a urea plant, an NPK plant and a DAP plant along with related on-site and off-site facilities for handling raw materials end products as well as the generation of steam and captive power. It declared a net profit of Rs.419 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07.

The stock last heavily during last year’s huge correction between May and June i.e. it fell from a high of 364 to a low of 128.50 (about 65%) loss. It bounced back and made a high of 248.40 in January 2007. But once again, it fell back near its previous support levels.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/ZUARIAGRO_160907.jpg

Last week, it managed to break its previous resistance and closed above it with more volumes than the previous peak. More importantly, it managed to close above 61.8% retracement, which is a strong resistance level while pull back. The stock may be expected to reach 364 in the medium term, which was its previous high and another major resistance.

Sundaramurthy Vadivelu

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Analysis of select India stocks (Medium term perspective)

Sundaramurthy Vadivelu

Disclosure Please click on the above link to view the disclosure document before reading this article. The contents may not be reproduced in any form without obtaining prior permission from the publisher. Please send your feedback

In this article let us analyze 5 India stocks that are technically bullish for the medium term. The discussion is based on weekly charts.

Ispat Industries Limited (Group A, Scrip Code: 500305):

The company was promoted by the well known Mittal family. Lakshmi Mittal, the eldest of the Mittal brothers is the fifth richest person in the world, according to Forbes magazine. He branched out in 1994, taking over the international operations of the group. Pramod Mittal and Vinod Mittal look after the steel business in India. The company produces sponge iron, hot and cold rolled coils, galvanized and colour coated sheets. Sponge iron production capacity is 1.6 million tonnes per year while hot rolled coil steel plant capacity is 2.4 million tonnes per year.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/ISPATIND_100907.jpg

Ispat Industries reported a net loss of Rs.9.5 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07. In December 2005 the company had revised the capital structure of the company. 40% of the equity share capital of the Company was converted into 0.01% Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares (0.01% CRPS). After it was relisted, it made a high of 25 in April 2006. Within about two months, it fell to a low of 10.10. The stock gained reasonably in the next 6 months and touched a high of 17.90 in January 2007. After almost 8 months of corrective decline/consolidation, it broke its resistance with record volumes last week. The stock is expected to test its previous high at 25 soon. Medium term target works out to 29.

Jindal Photo Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 532624):

Jindal Photo Limited is India’s largest manufacturer of photographic films and related products. The company produces colour roll films, analog & digital cameras, photographic colour paper, medical X-ray films & equipments, photo processing equipments, photographic chemicals etc. It has over 36% market share in the colour paper and colour roll Films. The other products such as X-ray Films, cine colour positive film, etc. have market share of about 25%. Jindal Photo markets the products under the brand name “FUJIFILM”. The company had reported a net profit of Rs.27.5 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/JINDALPHOT_100907.jpg

This stock too, had undergone restructuring of capital like Ispat Industries. It made a highs of 418.95 on May 27, 2005 and 416.50 on August 26, 2005. It was on a steady decline for next one year – no real buying support from market.

It has consolidated since then for about 11 months and broken out in August 2007 with reasonably good volumes. The next resistances for the stock are at 158.85 and 186.70.

Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited (Group A, Scrip Code: 500359):

Ranbaxy is a well known pharmaceutical company headquartered in India. It has presence in 49 countries and there are manufacturing facilities in 11 countries. Ranbaxy manufactures and markets generic pharmaceuticals, value added generic pharmaceuticals, branded generics, active pharmaceuticals and intermediates. The company’s net profit for the financial year 2006 – 07 was reported to be Rs.386 crores.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/RANBAXY_100907.jpg

Ranbaxy is a constituent of both Sensex and Nifty. The stock had a torrid time in October 2005 when it fell by almost 33% in three weeks. This was just after Ranbaxy lost a UK lawsuit to Pfizer. For a stock analyst, this was not a surprise – a “Three outside down” candlestick pattern occurred in the monthly chart of the stock in February 2005, clearly indicating a long term reversal.

The stock continued to make lower highs and lower lows since May 2006. The first wave in medium term charts apparently ended in May 2007. After a four month correction/consolidation pattern, the stock had broken out this week with reasonably good volumes. Please note the “three inside up” candlestick pattern prior to this week, formed at support levels. The stock’s next resistances are 452 and 530.

Today’s Writing Products Limited (Group B1, Scrip Code: 531830):

Today’s Writing is one of the leading manufacturers of pens and other writing products. It has about 35 varieties of pens alone and recently they have extended their business to school and office stationery items. The company has been consistenly making profits ever since it went public 11 years ago. It declared a net profit of Rs.11.6 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/TODAYS_100907.jpg

This stock has made a few “V” like patterns, two of which are shown above. ‘V’ formation is generally considered to be a quick reaction by the crowd to offset the steep fall in prices; Technical traders prefer a cup and handle type of pattern instead of this pattern. The stock has broken its resistance at 71.50. This has happened after 4 months of decline. Note the huge “upward gap” or “rising window” in the last week’s price. This gap, should act as a support in case the stock corrects from the current levels. The stock is expected to test its resistances at 88.40 and 97.

Venky’s India Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 523261):

Venky's (India) Limited was formerly known as Western Hatcheries Limited and belongs to Venkateshwara Hatcheries group. Its produces animal health products, pellet feeds, processed chicken products and specific pathogen free (SPF) eggs. There are about 30 units spread across the country. Recently the company has diversified into nutritional health products for human beings, pet food and health care products. The company’s net profits were worth Rs.11.5 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/VENKEYS_100907.jpg

The stock had fallen from a high of 227.10 in August 2005 to a low of 91 in June 2006. It has been bullish since then, though it nearly tested its support levels. In June 2007 it did break its resistance but without much volumes. It got corrected slightly and now, it has almost come back to its previous close at 174.10. This confirms bullishness. The stock is expected to test its resistances at 212 and 227.10.

Sundaramurthy Vadivelu

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Feeling Bullish - India Stock Market Weekly Review

Disclosure

Bulls make merry as Indices continue to rally!

In the last weekly review I had mentioned, “This week was an interesting one and now we have the confirmation that the bulls are back on track”.

This view was found correct as the indices were on a roll this week. The Nifty gained 61.50 points (1.37%) on weekly basis. Except for a minor correction of 15.40 points on Tuesday the index closed positive on all four remaining days. But the major rally was witnessed on Thursday as the index soared by 62.55 points. On Monday, Wednesday and Friday Nifty remained almost flat with gains of 7.60, 2.80 and 3.95 points respectively. The Nifty closed at 4566.

On Tuesday and Wednesday there were two candlesticks with ‘doji’ bodies. In my earlier article “Candlestick patterns in Indian stock markets” we discussed about single and multiple candlestick patterns and their use. A doji represents indecision among traders. ‘Doji’ candle’s open and close prices are same (or nearly the same). But the real body should be almost in the middle of the candlestick range. Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s candlesticks though, had a “doji” body meaning open and close were almost the same. But on Tuesday the real body was found below the middle of the candlestick range. On Wednesday it was above the midpoint. The long upper shadow on Tuesday indicated a sell off; it was reflected in Wednesday’s trade for the first 4 hours. During the last hour of trade the bulls had managed to close positive, though the gain was a meagre one. This is seen from the long lower shadow of the candlestick on Wednesday. In other words the bears tried to push the market down on Wednesday; but the bulls managed to push the index up. As a result we saw a rally on Thursday.

But that was a short lived one. Today Nifty has once again formed a ‘doji’ body with a long upper shadow similar to that of Tuesday, signifying selling pressure. Both daily and intra day chart of nifty are shown below. Today’s trading session has been a weak one, though with a small gain. The day, though opening higher, formed lower highs and lower lows continuously. The last hour of trade witnessed sell off as indicated on the chart. This means that the market is witnessing profit booking at higher levels. Going by this chart, we may see further corrections next week. But those corrections will be good for the index and the overall market.

Daily chart of Nifty

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NiftyDaily200707.JPG

Intraday chart of Nifty on 20-Jul-07

(Courtesy: NSE, www.nseindia.com)

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NiftyIntra200707.JPG

However, we still maintain our bullish view on medium and long term trends on the index.

Several index stocks are at a life time high. These include Bharti Airtel, Gas Authority of India, Grasim, Indian Petrochemicals Corporation, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Communications and Reliance Industries. Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are bearish in short term charts.

The India Street analyzed Omaxe IPO. Today the issue got closed at 1700 IST. Following details are available now.

Total Issue Size	17796520
Total Bids Received	1197281780
Total Bids Received at Cut-off Price	51889820
No. of times issue is subscribed	67.28

As of yesterday, the qualified institutional buyers had oversubscribed by 8.59 times, non institutional investors by 3.26 times, retail investors 1.17 times and employees of the company by 0.95 times. These figures will change today.

Top gainers and losers among index stocks:

Scrip	% Gain	Scrip	% Loss
RELIANCE	6.72	SIEMENS	9.08
BAJAJAUTO	6.45	CIPLA	5.15
IPCL	6.15	ABB	4.72
GUJAMBCEM	5.70	BPCL	3.82
RCOM	5.22	SUNPHARMA	3.54

Top gainers and losers in overall market:

Scrip	% Gain	Scrip	% Loss
ZEENEWS	61.82	BSL	17.26
PTC	33.52	COLORCHIPS	16.73
KOTHARIPRO	30.23	NDTV	15.86
CELEBRITY	25.49	HEXAWARE	15.13
NIPPOBATRY	24.96	INFOTECENT	14.76

We discussed about Celebrity Fashions in my earlier article, “The Top 5 Bullish Stocks for this Week”.

We have analyzed 20 stocks for short term, 10 stocks for medium term and 5 stocks for long term investment. The following tables show the status of these stocks as of today. (Please note that ‘Initial’ refers to close price on date of analysis, Highest refers to the highest close price after the analysis date, % gain is calculated based on these two prices.)

Short term picks

Analysis date: 29-Jun-07

Scrip	Initial	Highest	% gain
GOKEX	242.60	259.20	6.84
HCC	123.20	132.00	7.14
OPTOCIRCUI	385.10	469.85	22.01
ORBITCORP	272.70	355.65	30.42
SOUTHBANK	127.50	152.55	19.65

Analysis date: 05-Jul-07

Scrip	Initial	Highest	% gain
EVERESTIND	123.95	123.95	0.00
INDIANB	141.05	163.70	16.06
POLYPLEX	144.60	154.20	6.64
SINTEX	259.65	289.75	11.59
SRF	175.75	176.10	0.20

Analysis date: 12-Jul-07

Scrip	Initial	Highest	% gain
ARVINDMILL	48.50	51.30	5.77
GNFC	124.90	137.30	9.93
PARSVNATH	394.00	394.00	0.00
PFC	169.30	195.65	15.56
TATAMETALI	147.95	147.95	0.00

Analysis date: 18-Jul-07

Scrip	Initial	Highest	% gain
CELEBRITY	76.80	89.00	15.89
GALLANTT	13.10	13.10	0.00
INDIAGLYCO	164.20	164.45	0.15
KTKBANK	196.05	196.05	0.00
USHAMART	280.00	289.90	3.54

Medium term picks:

Analysis Date: 02-Jul-07

Scrip	Initial	Highest	% gain
ADANIENT	270.70	320.75	18.49
GODREJIND	214.65	220.55	2.75
HIKAL	491.75	566.95	15.29
TINPLATE	60.80	60.80	0.00
XLTL	138.75	140.05	0.94

Analysis Date: 16-Jul-07

Scrip	Initial	Highest	% gain
COSMOFILMS	99.85	102.70	2.85
HEG	224.65	237.90	5.90
KIRLOSOIL	347.65	357.40	2.80
ROHITFERRO	39.50	39.50	0.00
ZEEL	335.80	335.80	0.00

Long term picks:

Analysis Date: 02-Jul-07

Scrip	Initial	Highest	% gain
DENABANK	49.75	56.95	14.47
GTL	222.60	231.75	4.11
GVKPIL	496.95	579.35	16.58
RPL	114.35	117.90	3.10
SREINTFIN	92.20	107.45	16.54

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SUNDARAMURTHY VADIVELU