Showing posts with label TVS MOTOR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TVS MOTOR. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

The 5 Next Biggest Stocks in India



(short term perspective)








Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Disclosure


Please click on the above link to view the disclosure document before reading this article. The contents may not be reproduced in any form without obtaining prior permission from the publisher.


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In this article let us discuss 5 India stocks that are bullish for short term.


Bhagwati Banquets and Hotels Limited

(Group: B1, Scrip Code: 532845):



The Grand Bhagwati is situated in the outskirts of Ahmedabad. It has 35 guest rooms and 2 grand suite rooms. It also has a conference hall with an open area of over 7,000 square foot suited for special events like exhibitions, fashion shows, product launch, premieres etc. besides large wedding & reception parties. In April 2007 the company came out with an IPO to raise funds for its proposed hotel project near Surat. The company declared a net profit of Rs.1.55 crores for the quarter ended June 2007.


The stock’s IPO issue price was 40. There was a mixed reaction to this IPO from the media that the valuations are stiff.


In the daily chart shown below, it can be seen that on the day of listing it made a high of 57.35 and closed at 49.05. The stock was on a downtrend and touched a low of 25.60 on August 6. On September 6 it had broken its previous resistance at 39.60 and closed above it; it continues to trade above it. The stock is likely to test its previous high of 57.35 in short term.




http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/BHAGWATIHO_160907.jpg


BOC India Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 523457):



This company specializes in industrial gases production. It was established in 1935 as Indian Oxygen and Acetylene company and currently it is a subsidiary of BOC group, which is a pioneer in air separation technology. BOC India produces industrial gases such as oxygen, nitrogen, acetylene, hydrogen, carbon dioxide and special purpose gases that are used in medical/industrial applications. The company’s net profits were worth Rs.44.6 crores in 2006 – 07.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/BOC_160907.jpg


The stock has been hit badly in the last one year. It made a high of 242.90 on May 9, 2006. On April 3, 2007, it registered a low of 122. This support has not yet been broken, though the stock came down to 122.05 recently. After about 4 months consolidation pattern, it had broken its resistance at 149.90 and closed above it. The stock is expected to target 198 in short term.


De Nora India Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 590031):



The company was formerly known as Titanor Components Limited. The Italian group De Nora has 51% stake in this company. De Nora group has developed membrane cell technology for the chlor alkali industry. Denora India supplies cathodic protection systems, ion exchange membrane cell components, electrochlorination systems etc. The company’s net profit for the quarter ended June 2007 was Rs.1.23 crores.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/DENORA_160907.jpg


Like BOC, this stock too had lost severely in the last one year. It fell from a high of 379 in May 2006 to a low of 80.05 in March 2007. It registered a higher low of 93 on July 30. On September 13, it broke its previous high at 122 and closed above it with very good volumes . There is a possible downside risk of 10 rupees for this stock. However, it is likely to test 164 in the short term.


FDC Limited (Group: A, Scrip Code: 531599):



FDC Limited (formerly Fair Deal Corporation) is a leading pharmaceutical company in India with more than 70 years of operation.


Electral, a popular oral rehydration salt formulation by FDC


FDC manufactures formulations as well as active pharmaceutical ingredients. Formulations include antibiotics, antivirals, antifungals, oral rehydration salts, cardiovascular drugs, opthalmics etc. FDC exports its products to over 50 countries, including advanced markets such as the United States, United Kingdom and Japan. The company declared a net profit of Rs.65.6 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07.



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/FDC_160907.jpg


This stock had made a high of 66 in December 2004. It fell to a low of 27.05 on August 22, 2007. On September 14, it broke the previous high of 31.80 made on September 4 and closed above it with very good volumes. This is the first bullish breakout for the stock after a long time. The stock is expected to test its resistance at 36.80 in the short term. It has entered the third wave in daily chart; but it is still in the first wave in weekly chart. A correction after achieving the target of 36.80 cannot be ruled out.

TVS Motor Company Limited (Group: A, Scrip Code: 532343):



TVS Motor Company is the third largest two-wheeler manufacturer in India and among the top ten in the world, with an annual turnover of over USD 650 million. TVS first rolled out the TVS 50 moped in 1980 and later TVS Suzuki motorcycle. It reported total two wheeler sales of 102,734 units in August 2007 compared to 135,533 units in August 2006. The company’s net profit for the year 2006 – 07 was Rs.77.75 crores.



TVS Apache motorcycle


Like BOC and FDC, this too was a casualty since last year. Its high was 186.50 on April 5, 2006. From this, it had fallen to a low of 51 on April 3, 2007 (a loss of 72% in one year).



http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/TVSMOTOR_160907.jpg

Over the last 5 months, the support at 51 has not been broken. On September 10 the stock had broken its resistance at 72 and closed above it with reasonably good volumes. The short term target for the stock works out to 90.





Sundaramurthy Vadivelu




Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Hot or Not? Automobile Sector on a slippery road!


By Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



Disclosure



It is a well known fact that automobiles form an integral part of every economy. Automobiles are very essential for the movement of men and material. In India, automobile industry has come up a long way. 25 years ago, only upper middle class people could afford to have a motor cycle and rich people could possibly have a car (only a few models existed however). Today, the scenario has changed and even middle class families own a car. Let us now analyze the automobile sector from the stock market point of view. We will discuss the BSE Auto Index as well as some popular stocks.


The BSE Auto Index:


The BSE Auto Index has a free float market capitalization of Rs.81,458 crores and 17 constituent stocks. Bajaj Auto (weightage: 17.91%), Tata Motors (17.57%), Mahindra & Mahindra (also known as M&M, 15.19%), Maruti (12.24%), Hero Honda (7.67) are the top 5 in terms of weightage. It may be noted here that these stocks are also constituents of Nifty.


In the weekly chart displayed below, a “double top” formation can be observed. During May 2006 the auto index reached a high of 5844. Within about one month, it fell to a low of 3960. In February 2007 it once again made a high of 5882 but could not close above its previous high. Between May and July this year, a similar double top pattern was formed and the index has broken its support as can be seen from the chart. These indicate that the Auto Index is bearish. The next supports are at 4073 and 3960.


Chart Courtesy : BSE Web site, www.bseindia.com


Top Auto stocks:



These can be classified into 4 categories viz.


  • 2 and 3 wheelers (Bajaj Auto, Hero Honda, TVS Motor etc.)

  • Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCV - Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors etc.)

  • Passenger cars (Hindustan Motors, Maruti Udyog)

  • Tractors (Escorts, Punjab Tractors etc.)


Two and Three wheelers:


Scrip

5 year return %

Recent Loss %

Bajaj Auto

402.36

(33.16)

Hero Honda

122.87

(31.66)

LML

(63.90)

(79.94)

Maha. Scooter

269.97

(41.23)

TVS Motor

23.89

(68.35)


LCV’s / HCV’s:

Scrip

5 year return %

Recent Loss %

Ashok Leyland

244.97

(33.65)

Eicher Motors

359.27

(17.90)

Swaraj Mazda

334.38

(28.37)

Tata Motors

371.84

(35.70)


Passenger Cars:


Scrip

5 year return %

Recent Loss %

Hindustan Motors

208.64

(57.45)

Maruti Udyog

236.70

(21.88)


Tractors:


Scrip

5 year return %

Recent Loss %

ESCORTS

51.29

(46.39)

HMT

127.38

(44.11)

M&M

1,268.71

(37.69)

PUNJABTRAC

56.31

(32.07)


For more detailed information on prices and returns please See Recent Performance of India Automobile Stocks


Possible causes of the weakness in automobile sector:


  • Increased interest rates

  • Excess inventories

  • Increasing competition


Mahindra & Mahindra, TVS Motors, Punjab Tractors, Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto showed decline in their earnings during fourth quarter for financial year 2006 – 07 whereas Ashok Leyland and Maruti Udyog had more earnings than the previous quarter.

Let us now discuss the long term outlook for some important stocks.


Ashok Leyland:





The monthly chart of the stock is displayed above. Using Elliott wave theory, we can come to the conclusion that waves 1 through 5 are already over; corrective wave ‘a’ and pullback wave ‘b’ are also complete. Now the last leg of correction is in progress. The stock is on the verge of testing its 38.2% retracement levels. A bearish “three outside down” candlestick pattern has been formed. If 34.50 is breached on a monthly basis, we can expect a bearish target of 22.90 in the long term.


Eicher Motors:




As can be seen in the chart above, the stock is locked between 202 and 415 for almost 2 years now. Only a decisive monthly close above 415 with good volumes will move the stock further upwards. But a close below 202 will make the stock bearish.


Tata Motors:




Like Ashok Leyland, this stock is also in wave ‘c’. If it closes below 637 in monthly charts, it may have a bearish target of 415 in the long term. Note that the volumes were maximum during wave 3 in 2003.


Hot or Not Conclusion:


Long term investors can exit the automobile sector at every higher level. Medium term and short term trends are weak; so it is better to avoid these stocks. Day traders/future traders however, may go either way depending on intraday charts.


  • Long Term Investors – Hot

  • Medium Term – Not

  • Short Term – Not



Sundaramurthy Vadivelu



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